Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a 90-day extension of a trade truce with China was a likely outcome with negotiations between the two countries underway in Stockholm. 
• China’s proposed coal mine developments risk creating an oversupply and derailing climate goals, according to Global Energy Monitor. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Union Pacific is nearing an agreement for a stock-and-cash deal for Norfolk Southern that would value the smaller rival at about $320 a share.
• Gold held a decline after the dollar rose the most since May following a tariff deal between the US and the European Union, with investors now focusing on prospects for an extension of a trade truce between Washington and Beijing.
• Alphabet's Waymo plans to launch robotaxi service in Dallas next year in partnership with Avis, a push by the autonomous car company to diversify beyond its relationship with Uber to further expand across the US.
• Celestica raised its full-year revenue forecast for the third time in a row as demand grows for its cloud-computing segment. 
• Berkshire Hathaway is selling about a third of its stake in VeriSign, locking in a sizable gain since the Warren Buffett-led investment firm began building its stake in the domain name registry services company more than a decade ago. 
• Uber is pushing back on a new NYC proposal requiring delivery app workers to display company-issued identification numbers on reflective vests, saying it "singles out" immigrant workers for "heightened surveillance and control".
• Cadence Design pleaded guilty to charges accusing the company of violating US export controls by selling hardware and software to China’s National University of Defense Technology. 
• An activist investor and a real estate executive are calling donors to commit at least $25,000 to an effort opposing Zohran Mamdani’s run for mayor of New York City. 
• The US Education Department said that it has launched an investigation of Duke University and the Duke Law Journal over allegations of civil rights violations. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• European capitals defended the trade deal struck with Donald Trump, which will see the European Union accept a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the US while reducing levies on some American products to zero: Here’s your Evening Briefing.   
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• Electric Utilities Will Invest More Than $1.1 Trillion By 2030 To Meet Demand Growth. 
• South Korea wants to modernize the US navy. South Korea proposed a shipbuilding project worth tens of trillions of won to US during the tariff negotiations, Yonhap News says, citing unidentified sources.
• The DOJ has filed a formal complaint, accusing District Judge James Boasberg of misconduct.
• NYC Blackstone Tower Shooter ID'd As Shane Tamura.
• FOX NEWS: "Light skin African-American looking guy. Kind of middle eastern looking." CNN: "Male, possibly white, wearing sunglasses, has a mustache." Actual quotes from both. (pic)
• Chinese Intel-Linked Bankers Reportedly Fundraised For L.A. Mayor Karen Bass. 
• "This Isn't Cultural Drift - It's Social Engineering...".
• BREAKING: Two people were taken into custody at the scene of active shooter in Manhattan, a man and a woman. The woman has a cut on her head and the man allegedly said, “Free Palestine, I’m not the active shooter!” (pic)
• Multiple People Shot At Blackstone's New York Headquarters; Shooter Killed Himself
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• CDC Releases Update On 'Long COVID' Symptoms.
• Authorities have charged at least five suspects in a violent brawl that took place in downtown Cincinnati according to police. 
    
   
• The fact that gay chiId sex offenders are able to legally purchase baby boys is a massive moral indictment on us all. (video)
• Sydney Sweeney Wears Jeans In Ad, Woke Liberals See Nazis.
• The S&P closed up 1 point (+0.02%) today after another last hour ramp to print a 6th consecutive all time high.  
• Dollar Rips, Gold Dips On Trade-Deals; Momo, Memes, & 'Most Shorted' Dump Into Crazy Week. 

• @CNBC 

• Tuesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cadence Design Systems, Whirlpool, Nucor and more. 

• @MarioNawful  

• PHONES BEFORE 13 LINKED TO WORSE MENTAL HEALTH LATER. A study of over 100,000 young adults found kids who got smartphones early had higher rates of depression, low self-worth and suicidal thoughts. Nearly half of girls who had phones by age 5 or 6 reported severe suicidal thoughts compared to 28% who got them at 13 or older. Researchers say delaying smartphones until 14 and social media until 16 could help prevent long-term damage.
• LOCKHEED CEO TEASES “GAME-CHANGING” SECRET PROGRAM - IN DEVELOPMENT SINCE 2018. Lockheed Martin’s CEO just dropped a rare hint: the defense giant has been working on a top-secret program since 2018 - and it’s nearly ready. Details? Classified. But he called it “a game-changer” and “critical for both U.S. and allied forces”, with projected demand stretching years into the future. Eyes on the black budget.

• @GenFlynn

• There is an incredibly important and very strategic message here for all Americans and all of humanity. Thank you @POTUS @realDonaldTrump. There is more to come! (video)
• BREAKING: D.C. Sources Tell Me The REPUBLICANS On The Senate Intelligence Committee Chaired By @SenTomCotton ARE CRAFTING LEGISLATION THAT WOULD START RESTRICTING @DNIGabbard FROM REVIEWING & RELEASING, TO THE PUBLIC, DEEP STATE & INTEL FILES SHOWING THEY'VE BEEN CRIMINAL! Why @TomCottonAR ? This is starting to look really bad for you.  

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: Donald Trump turned down opportunity to travel to Jeffrey Epstein’s island, per Axios.

• @amuse 

• ISLAMIFICATION: The Boston Police Department is actively reaching out to its growing Islamic community to recruit Islamic police officers to enforce the law and 'social norms' in predominantly Muslim neighborhoods.

• @GuntherEagleman

• BREAKING: Leader John Thune has just started the process to CONFIRM Trump nominees! Either they hit OVERDRIVE right now, or most of the 130 nominees waiting will be stalled unless Trump uses recess appointments. (video)
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• @RodDMartin

• BREAKING: Trump admin rebuffs Schiff, reopens massive Pacific oil reserve capable of 80% of regional production. After 10 years offline, 190 million barrels are back in play—despite Adam Schiff’s tantrum. Here’s how Trump revived Santa Ynez in just five months.

• @annvandersteel

• When did this white blanket blocking the sun become a normal thing in the sky? Especially in Florida? Its not. Its from manipulating our skies. I am up in Marblehead Massachusetts and it is the same up here. The Bill Gate Globalist cabal is Dimming the Sun. They are sick freaks. (pic)

• @disclosetv

• ICYMI - Attack drones will be deployed at select U.S. schools to stop school shooters in emergencies, by Campus Guardian Angel, a company founded by U.S. military and defense contractors. (video)

• @MsKristaMonroe

• Operation Grayskull just quietly became one of the most successful child predator takedowns in U.S. history. Four of the most disturbing child abuse websites on the dark web were completely dismantled. Eighteen offenders were convicted in the U.S. alone. Over 300 years in federal prison have been handed out so far. And the networks haven’t resurfaced. This didn’t happen under Biden. It started during Trump’s first term. And it’s wrapping up now, under Trump’s second, with Kash Patel at the head of the FBI.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.25 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 32.0% -25.0 percentage points
• India 16.0% -6.0 percentage points
• South Korea  58.0% -6.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 20.0% -8.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.1 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.40% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.3 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.