Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Alt Energy/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.5%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% +3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.8 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.9 -2.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.8 -5.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(168 of 500 reporting) +8.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.60 +.29:  Growth Rate +11.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 455.56 +1.00: Growth Rate +20.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.58 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.1 +.3
• US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% +.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 +7.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 63.7% (+1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 50.5%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 45.0% -12.0 percentage points
• India 19.0% -3.0 percentage points
• South Korea  61.0% -3.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 29.0% +1.0 percentage point. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -193 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +65 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long