Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.15%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour -2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.5 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.1 -1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.0 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(61 of 500 reporting) +10.3% +n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 282.74 +n/a:  Growth Rate +10.7% +n/a, P/E 22.4 +n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +45.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 451.50 +n/a: Growth Rate +19.7% +n/a, P/E 33.4 +n/a
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.45 +14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.7 unch.
• US Yield Curve 52.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.9% +1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 58.2% (+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 49.0%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 34.0% +7.0 percentage points
• India 19.0% -7.0 percentage points.
• Japan 18.0% -2.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  31.0% +4.0 percentage point.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long