Tuesday, October 07, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @GenFlynn
  • @JasonJournoDC
  • @HustleBitch_
  • BILL GATES’ 2028 DEADLINE: OBEY OR BE ERASED. Bill Gates recently said that if you don’t have the Digital ID by 2028, you’ll be isolated from society. And in the UK, the nightmare’s already begun: “I’m tired. I’m sick and tired of fighting these bastards. But fight we must, because otherwise they’re going to bring in a digital ID, and once that’s in, a digital currency. We will have total surveillance over everything that we do and we say.” (video)
  • @MAHA_Action
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @CartLandDavid
  • @annvandersteel
  • Traitors are running our legislative body! Because of UNIPARTY
    @LeaderJohnThune the executive branch has been held hostage by slow rolling nominations and cow towing to Dems and RINOs (aka Uniparty). It’s time to remove the criminals. We must be prepared with real public servants to replace the criminals in DC. Trump’s EO to eliminate the machines will result in real elections November 2026. Will Americans be ready to serve?
  • @Rothbard1776
  • @RepRileyMoore
  • @winwithwinsome
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @WCdispatch_
  • @TheMagaKing2_0
  • @JohnLeFevre
  • @WCdispatch_
  • @BubbleBathGirl
  • @songpinganq
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.0 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 -.24%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.4 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.13% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on AI Tech Spending Worries, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.34 -.08%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.12% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.91% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.25 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.2 -2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.3 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +11.1% -1.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.37 +.06:  Growth Rate +12.5% unch., P/E 22.8 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 477.55 +.06: Growth Rate +17.5% unch., P/E 33.7 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.31 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.2% -.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 81.3% (-3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 54.6%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +830 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gambling -3.4% 2) Disk Drives -3.3% 3) Homebuilding -2.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SEPN, LMND, AMKR, CHA, ACHR, SKE, GSRT, HOND, WOLF, KVYO, CSWC, CRWV, GILT, BTDR, GSAT, BKKT, PENG, NBIS, RDW, ORCL, MGA, BULL, OLN, ENVX, PLAB, BWA, SERV, FLUT, RKT, FRO, DKNG, CRDO, AMSC, SUPX, OPRA, F, STX, FLNC, IDR, AAOI, SEI, FORD, SANM, CRML and AEHR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KDP 2) FE 3) XLI 4) BAX 5) GSAT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AEHR 2) LCID 3) F 4) DOW 5) SMLR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XBI 2) XLF 3) XLP 4) KBE 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electrification +3.4% 2) Computer Services +1.2% 3) Healthcare Providers +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BTQ, USAR, DGNX, BNC, CCCX, JHX, EAF, APP, TSSI, ORBS, FIG, NNE, RGC, AA, IE, SMTC, LEU, RGTI, AVXL, SOFI, AMD, OSCR, MESO, CLF, EQX, CNR, ARQQ, KVUE, PYPL, FIGR, BTU, AEXA and HSDT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BMEA 2) XLI 3) LAR 4) RVPH 5) KDP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DYN 2) AXIL 3) PLTR 4) SOFI 5) AMD
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) PPH 2) XLK 3) KRE 4) IXP 5) SMH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (AZZ)/1.57
Economic Releases 
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +497,000 barrels versus a +1,792,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,458,750 barrels versus a +4,125,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -904,750 barrels versus a +578,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -1.23% versus a -1.6% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  • The Federal Budget Balance for Sept. is estimated at $50.0B versus -$344.8B in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (BN) 3-for-2
  • (BNT) 3-for-2 
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, CB Employment Trends Index for Sept., weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Oct., (HON) investor day and the Roth Healthcare Opportunities Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Monday, October 06, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ 
  • @MarioNawful
  • NETANYAHU: IRAN COULD SOON TARGET U.S. CITIES WITH NUKES. “Iran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles with an 8,000 km range. Add another 3,000 and they can target New York City, Washington, Boston, Miami, Mar-a-Lago. That’s a great danger. You don’t want to be under the nuclear gun of people who chant death to America.” (video)
  • FLYING TAXIS JUST GAVE THEIR FIRST PUBLIC DEMO IN THE U.S. It's no longer sci-fi; they’re real, and they just made their first public flights in the U.S. It happened at the California International Airshow, where Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation demoed their electric vertical takeoff aircraft (eVTOLs) in front of a live crowd. Each vehicle flew for about 10 minutes, lifting off vertically, hovering, cruising, and landing with ease, no runway needed. This marks the first time Americans have seen flying taxis in action in person. (video)
  • EricLDaugh
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @winwithwinsome
  • @disclosetv
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @iAnonPatriot
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • The Occupation Safety Health Administration told Employers not to report Covid Vaccine Injuries because it might create “Vaccine Scepticism”. Conspiracy Confirmed. (pic)
  • @elonmusk
  • @MattWalshBlog
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ThePatriotOasis
  • @ImMeme0
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @Albuffalo2nite
  • @devorydarkins
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.98 -.13%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.36 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 86.3 -.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.16% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.11%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on AI-Induced Corporate Productivity Optimism, New Leadership in Japan, Buyout Speculation, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.37 -.02%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +5.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.8 -1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.1 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.3 -.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.31 +.20:  Growth Rate +12.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.9 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 477.49 +.52: Growth Rate +17.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.8 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.4 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 56.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.6% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 83.4% (-2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 56.5%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +830 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -1.7% 2) Retail -1.2% 3) Gambling -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SNDK, RKT, MGNI, BETR, VZ, JBS, SUPX, PHAT, QUBT, ARCT, ANF and HROW
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KDP 2) EWT 3) BHP 4) RUM 5) EXPE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) QUBT 2) FLYE 3) KLC 4) VFC 5) TROX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) FXR 2) FXL 3) FXU 4) XLY 5) FXO

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +4.1% 2) Semis +3.8% 3) AI/Innovation +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRML, SANM, AIP, AMD, GSRT, NNE, AAOI, PATH, ACHR, SERV, ORIC, ALAB, CMA, CCCX, RCAT, OKLO, IDR, IREN, VOYG, EOSE, EAF, FIG, FTK, IMNM, ORLA, QBTS, FTK, BKSY, PPTA, XNET, FORD, ASTS, RIOT, BMNR, HSDT, AMPX, FLY, FLNC, RCUS, ZBIO, ONDS, ENTA, VKTX, IONQ, LTBR, MUX, LUNR, MARA, GSAT, CLSK, LTBR, GPCR, ORKA, FORM, SMCI, CWEN/A, EPSM, RDW, JMIA, CYTK, SOFI, BKKT, ARQQ, PENG, CIFR, CWEN, ZVRA, SMR, HUBS, DOCU, BEPC, TWST, FCEL, BTDR, ASND, PGY, GILT, KNX, AI, UBER, CRDO, SKE, TSM, DRD, ADUR, HOND, WOLF, COLD, BRZE, SONY, KFY, RKLB, ALMU, DLO, DELL, ABVX, PACS, WRD, QS, IAG, CRWV, TFPM, VLY, KVYO, ARWR, UVE, KTOS, SCCO, OR, CRM, PYPL and BANC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SLDP 2) CRML 3) KDP 4) REI 5) CCCX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SANM 2) AMD 3) CMA 4) ALAB 5) FIG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) BAI 2) XLF 3) XBI 4) IYF 5) COPX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MKC)/.82
After the Close: 
  • (PENG)/.37
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated at -$61.0B versus -$78.3B in July.
  • Exports MoM for Aug.
  • Imports MoM for Aug.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to fall to $13.5B versus $16.01B in July. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (BN) 3-for-2
  • (BNT) 3-for-2 
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for Oct., NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index for Sept., EIA shot-term energy outlook, API weekly crude oil stock report, (ADSK) investor day, (DELL) analyst meeting and the (ED) business update call could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +14.6% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.8 +.1
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 50.7% of Issues Advancing, 46.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .77 -19.8% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$132.2M
  • 153 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 61.3% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 70.9 +3.2
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 86.4 +2.1%
  • US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 325.25 -2.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.4 +.7%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.0 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED from NEUTRAL) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.3 -38.6%
  • Vix 16.6 -.2%
  • Total Put/Call .65 -16.7%