Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.34 -.08%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.12% -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.91% -4.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.25 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 -.6 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.2 -2.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.3 -1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +11.1% -1.3 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.37 +.06: Growth Rate +12.5% unch., P/E 22.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 477.55 +.06: Growth Rate +17.5% unch., P/E 33.7 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 +4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.31 -8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 -.1
- US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.2% -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 81.3% (-3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 54.6%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +830 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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