Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.4%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.96% -2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.1 +.3 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.1 -.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(78 of 500 reporting) +12.9% -2.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 296.47 +.11: Growth Rate +13.2% unch., P/E 22.8 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 482.18 +.61: Growth Rate +18.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.1 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 +11.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.28 +15.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.9 -.6 point
- US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.8% +.2 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.58 -2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 94.5% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 55.4%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +210 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +102 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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