Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.31 +.27%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.04 +1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.0 +3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.8 +1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.1 +.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(39 of 500 reporting) +15.0% +2.0 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.24 +.08:  Growth Rate +12.8% unch., P/E 22.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.46% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 479.97 +.48: Growth Rate +18.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .41 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -43.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 +1.6 points
• US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.7% +.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 94.7% (+.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 50.3%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slight Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long