Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Regional Bank Credit Quality Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.04%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.97 -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.94% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.6 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.0 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.6 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(49 of 500 reporting) +16.3% +1.3 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.56 +.32:  Growth Rate +12.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.47% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.27 +.30: Growth Rate +18.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.6 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 +.3 point
• US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.4% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 88.9% (-5.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 57.5%(+7.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -114 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slight Lower: On losses in my financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took profits in my financial longs
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long