Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.12%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% n/a
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% n/a
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.5 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -1.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -3.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -.8 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(24 of 500 reporting) +9.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.20 +.45: Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 479.13 +.92: Growth Rate +17.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.0 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -35.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.21 -11.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.8 +.9
- US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) n/a
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.3% +.8 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 n/a
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 n/a
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 94.0% (+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.1%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,033 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +124 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment