Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• President Donald Trump made a big investment in trying to bring the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza to an end and it’s about to pay off.
• China has unveiled broad new curbs on its exports of rare earths, boosting its leverage over critical minerals in its trade war with the US. Here's what to know. 
• scoop: Microsoft’s data center crunch will stretch into 2026, internal forecasts show. New azure cloud business is restricted in critical regions like Northern Virginia or Texas. 
• Employees are finding practical and creative ways to leverage AI technology into real business value.
• Southwest Airlines warned employees about potential operational delays at airports from a shortage of air traffic controllers as the US government shutdown drags on.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled staff to prepare the September consumer price index report. 
• The existential threat of a network attack that has lingered over Bitcoin since its inception is being ignored while investor flock to the cryptocurrency as a refuge from the debasement of the dollar. 
• Follow the latest developments in global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Trojan Horse For Partisan Media': Seattle Mayoral Frontrunner Wants To Force Taxpayers To Subsidize Biased News Outlets.
• Pro-Paper-Ballot Firm Buys Dominion Voting Systems. 
• How Trans-Activists Hatched A Plot In The 1980s To Hijack 'Science'.
• *BESSENT SAYS ARGENTINA PESO IS UNDERVALUED.
• This is NOT true and taken out of context. To be clear: up to 200 U.S. personnel, who are already stationed at CENTCOM, will be tasked with monitoring the peace agreement in Israel, and they will work with other international forces on the ground. 
• Remember the POWERFUL words of Letitia James. They can and will be used against her in a court of law.  
• 18 Numbers Which Clearly Show What Direction Things Are Going.
• How Vaccine Policies Have Changed Under RFK Jr. 
• "Get Out Of My Fu**ing Shot!": Second Katie Porter Video Plunges Gubernatorial Campaign Into 'Disaster'.
• Fascinating. Dominion Voting was just bought out. 
• Update: Dominion Sold for Scrap Because Indictments Expected Soon? You bet your bippy that we're reading between the lines here - but with what is surfacing almost daily it's practically the only reason that makes sense. Developing ... Scott Leiendecker, give us a call if we're way wrong. 
• The Student Mule Economy: A Billion-Dollar Problem Hiding In Plain Sight.
• Grand Jury Indicts NY AG Letitia James On Criminal Bank Fraud, CNN Reports.
• 'Clubbed Like A Baby Seal' - Momentum Snaps Everywhere As Dollar Hits 2 Month Highs.

• @CNBC

• Microsoft engineer resigns over cloud business from Israeli military.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open lower, tracking Wall Street losses.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500, Nasdaq pullback from record highs: Live updates.

• @WSJ 

• Trump’s announcement that he ended the two-year war in Gaza rested on an unorthodox strategy of declaring victory first and forcing others to fill in the details and make it a reality. 
• Federal regulators have opened another investigation into Tesla’s automated driving technology, saying the system “induced” some cars to run red lights or to turn into oncoming traffic. 
• How much social and public-health damage will Americans suffer before doing a U-turn on marijuana promotion?
• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said that ICE is “doubling down” in and around Chicago despite opposition from local officials and a legal challenge to the deployment of federalized National Guard members. 
• Republican and Democratic senators are trading ideas on healthcare funding to forge a path out of the government shutdown.
• The government shutdown will soon hit the wallets of federal workers nationwide. Here’s what to know.
• A big U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes on alleged drug boats are heavily pressuring Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro to find a way to appease President Trump.
• Novo Nordisk agreed to acquire Akero Therapeutics for up to $5.2 billion in cash.
• The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.75 +2.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.28 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 86.2 -.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.18%
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.