Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• US President Trump says he and Chinese President Xi would have “a very successful meeting” on Thursday to quell an expansive trade fight that has shaken global markets.
• The European Central Bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged for a third meeting, awaiting year-end projections that will offer greater clarity on harm caused by trade tensions and France’s fiscal crisis.
• Artificial intelligence startup OpenAI is preparing to file for an initial public offering as soon as next year that could give the company a market capitalization of $1 trillion, Reuters reported.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.  
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Meta, Google, Microsoft Capex Wrap.
• *TRUMP: INSTRUCTED DEPT OF WAR TO START TESTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. *TRUMP: PROCESS WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY. 
• Biden's Jack Smith 'Enemies List' Scandal Widens As 400 Republican Targets Revealed.
• Newsom's Prostitution Law Creates Disturbing New Sex Market In LA.
• California's Retirement Fund Lost 71% Of $468M Investment In Clean Energy And Won't Say How.
• Putin Hails Test Of Nuclear Super Torpedo Capable Of Unleashing 'Radioactive Tidal Waves'
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• Market Liquidity Turns Critical As BofA Says "Room For Fed To Restart Balance Sheet Growth"
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• Trump declares victory against climate 'hoax' after Bill Gates comments: AFP
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• *TRUMP: SOUTH KOREA WILL BUILD SUBMARINE IN PHILADELPHIA
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• After Years Of Climate Doom Propaganda, Bill Gates Admits World Won't End.
• "Coming into today market was pricing in a 92% probability of a cut on 12/10. Post Jay Pow Presser this is now 63%. Felt like a bit of an overreaction." - GS.
• Do Antidepressants Work For Kids? Key Evidence Is Corrupt Study.
• *TRUMP: SOUTH KOREA AGREES TO $350B DEAL. *TRUMP: GAVE SOUTH KOREA APPROVAL TO BUILD A NUCLEAR SUBMARINE. *TRUMP: SOUTH KOREA WILL GET LOWER TARIFF. 
• Leading Construction Indicator Signals Data Center Buildout Tsunami Nears.
• Meta Tumbles, Microsoft Slides, Alphabet Soars After Mag 7 Earnings Deluge.

• @CNBC

• Samsung’s third-quarter profit more than doubles, beating estimates as chip recovery gathers pace.
• Asia-Pacific markets set for mixed open after Fed casts doubt on another rate cut in December.
• Google expects 'significant increase' in capital expenditure in 2026, execs say.
• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg defends AI spending: 'We're seeing the returns'.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session
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• Stock futures move lower after tech earnings put focus back on AI trade: Live updates
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• Here are the five key takeaways from the Fed meeting and Powell news conference
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• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Meta, Starbucks, Microsoft and more.

• @TheTranscript

• $MSFT Microsoft CFO expects capacity constraints to remain at least through FY ending June '26. “We're accelerating the amount of capacity we're bringing online, we will continue to balance Azure revenue growth with the growing needs across our first party apps and AI solutions. Our own R&D efforts, and the end of life server replacements. Therefore, we now expect to be capacity constrained through at least the end of our fiscal year.”
• Alphabet CEO: "On Cloud, I would point out a clear sign of momentum: the number of deals greater than $1B that we’ve signed in the first three quarters of this year exceeds the total from the previous two years combined. We’re definitely seeing strong momentum and executing at pace."
• $META Zuck to accelerate AI compute build-out. "To date, we keep on seeing this pattern where we build some amount of infrastructure to what we think is an aggressive assumption, and then we keep on having more demand to be able to use more compute.."
• $META CEO in concluding the Q3 25 call: "I think it's pretty early, but I think we're seeing the returns in the core business that's giving us a lot of confidence that we should be investing a lot more. And we want to make sure that we're not underinvesting."
• ServiceNow CFO: "Q3 was an exceptional quarter, with standout performances across the board" $NOW: +4% AH.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 86.9 -.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.06% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -1.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.44%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.33%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.