Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• China is pushing ahead with imports of US-sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas, after the White House stopped short of putting additional restrictions on the trade in its latest wave of sanctions. 
• Taiwanese officials are courting podcasters and influencers aligned with Trump as they grow more worried the US leader could undermine the self-ruled democracy’s interests in talks with China.
• Bank of Japan watchers pushed back their forecast for the next interest rate hike timing in a dramatic shift from last month, with only a few expecting a move next week, according to the latest Bloomberg survey.
• The Trump administration released a plan to encourage ranching and boost domestic beef production, as it separately raised a quota for Argentine beef imports. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• *POLYMARKET IS SEEKING FUNDING AT A VALUATION OF UP TO $15B.
• What could possibly go wrong? (graph)
• Peanut Allergies In Children Have Dropped Significantly: Study.
• Trump Begins Tackling Cattle Shortage, Urges U.S. Ranchers To Lower Prices.
• Watch: ZeroHedge Spars With NATO Chief In The Oval Over Failed Ukraine Policy.
• How Progressives Broke The Constitution And Praised Themselves For It.
• Government Shutdown Becomes Second-Longest In US History: 4 Things To Know.
• *TESLA SAYS TARIFF IMPACTS IN EXCESS OF $400 MILLION. Stock LOD AH.
• *TRUMP: NOT SELLING ANY WEAPONS TO UKRAINE, SELLING THEM TO NATO.
• *MUSK SAYS TESLA PLANS TO UNVEIL NEXT OPTIMUS VERSION IN Q1.
• *TRUMP: THINK WE'LL MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA ON EVERYTHING.
• *TRUMP: THINK WE'LL MAKE DEAL WITH SOYBEANS, MAYBE NUCLEAR.
• *TRUMP: FELT IT WAS TIME FOR RUSSIA SANCTIONS. *TRUMP: CANCELLED MEETING WITH PUTIN, DIDN'T FEEL RIGHT.
• "You're Not The Only One With Guns": Anti-ICE Organizer Issues Viral Threat After US Marshal Wounded In Ramming Incident.
• "Time To Stop The Killing" - US Treasury Unveils Massive Russia Sanctions, Demands "Immediate Ceasefire".
• There it is: $38 trillion. (graph)       
• 'Fake News': Trump Slams WSJ Story That White House Sanctioned Long-Range Ukraine Missile Attacks.
• Tesla Drops After Q3 Profit Slides, Earnings Miss.
• AI Deepfakes Fueling Digitally-Enabled Crime-Wave In The Freight Industry.
• TSLA charts
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• Momo Meltdown Spreads To Broad Market; Bitcoin & Bullion Extend Losses.   

• @CNBC

• Amazon introduces 'Blue Jay' warehouse robot that performs multiple tasks at once.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: IBM, Tesla, Moderna and more.
• Stock futures edge lower as investors digest earnings, trade news: Live updates.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open lower as Wall Street declines on concerns over U.S.-China trade relations.
• Elon Musk says Tesla 'not about to replace Nvidia' as EV maker develops chips for cars, robots.
• Watch: Pivotal’s eVTOL is the first ultralight electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft to reach the consumer market. Here’s how it works and the challenges it faces as it races towards mass adoption. 

• @WSJ  

• Healthcare is a diseased sector of our economy where the prices are intentionally obscured and the customer is never right, writes @MattHennessey.
• Exclusive: Several quantum-computing companies are in talks to give the Commerce Department equity stakes in exchange for federal funding.
• “There is an untapped labor market in rural America.” One company is investing in rural America instead of offshoring jobs. 

• @TheTranscript 

• Lam Research CEO: "...we are strongly positioned for continued growth." $LRCX: +3% AH.
• IBM double beat. CEO: "This quarter we accelerated performance across all of our segments, and again exceeded expectations for revenue, profit and free cash flow". $IBM: -5% AH. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 +1.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.12%
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.18 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.7 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 3.95% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -.02%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.