Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.04%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.99% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.88% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.8 -.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.8 -.4 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(131 of 500 reporting) +13.2% -1.0 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 296.73 +.17: Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% +6.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +7.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 482.78 unch.: Growth Rate +18.8% unch., P/E 33.8 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -10.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.3 -.2 point
- US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.0% -.8 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 +4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +2.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 91.8% (-3.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 48.8%(-8.3 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +515 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment