Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.28 -.11%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.85% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.4 +1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.5 +14.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.2 +1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(285 of 500 reporting) +10.9% -.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 297.93 +.25:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 23.0 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.55% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +3.7% -3.9 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.03 +.89: Growth Rate +19.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 35.0 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .69 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.20 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 -.3 point
• US Yield Curve 48.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.5% -1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -11.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 57.6% (+6.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 43.7%(+5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -197 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long