Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Easing US/China Trade Tensions, More Dovish Powell Commentary, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.23 +.03%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.03 -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.94% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.5 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.9 -1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.7 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.0 +.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(31 of 500 reporting) +12.1% +2.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.16 -.04:  Growth Rate +12.8% unch., P/E 22.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 479.51 +.38: Growth Rate +18.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.6 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .47 +13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +28.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.8 unch.
• US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.4% +3.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 96.1% (+.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.2%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +460 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +211 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long