Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.11%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.99% -1.0 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.80% -4.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 -1.0 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.3 +8.6 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +4.8 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(147 of 500 reporting) +15.0% +1.8 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 297.27 +.54: Growth Rate +13.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 23.1 +.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.54% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +7.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 483.64 +.86: Growth Rate +19.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +15.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.23 +13.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.9 -.4 point
- US Yield Curve 49.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.3% -1.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.97% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.91 -4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 93.0% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 49.1%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +8 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +14 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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