Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.04%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.95% -1.0 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.9 -.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -.4 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(99 of 500 reporting) +14.2% +1.3 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 296.56 +.09: Growth Rate +13.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 482.78 +.60: Growth Rate +18.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.6 -.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.20 -8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.5 -.4 point
- US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.8% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 +3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 97.1% (-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 58.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -480 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +68 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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