Stocks Higher into Final Hour on AI-Induced Profit Margin Expansion Hopes, US-China Trade Deal Optimism, Earnings Outlook Upgrades, Tech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.03%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.98% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.80% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.4 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.8 +3.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(183 of 500 reporting) +12.0% -3.0 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 297.42 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 23.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.54% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +7.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 483.95 +.31: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.0 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .69 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.20 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 +.1 point
• US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.8% -1.5 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.97% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 -5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 90.8% (-3.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 48.3%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +80 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech//biotech sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long