Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,665.5 +1.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 46,274.2 +1.7%

• NASDAQ 22,695.9 -1.5%

• Russell 2000 2,412.67 +2.4%

• NYSE FANG+ 16,121.5 +1.6%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 275.9 +4.7%

• Wilshire 5000 65,942.6 -1.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,702.6 +1.8%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,995.45 +1.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 886.1 +2.0%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 245.91 -1.0%
  

• NYSE Technology 7,334.2 +3.7%

• Transports 15,710.6 +4.2%

• Utilities 1,153.0 +1.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 98.1 +.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 54.3 +5.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 242.32 -.11%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.35 +.25%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 581,023 +.06%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 +59.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 533 -212

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.4 n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 102,958 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,936,690 n/a

• Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%

• OEX Put/Call 1.12 -1.3%

• ISE Sentiment 173.0 -6.0

• NYSE Arms .90 +19.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.1 -6.5%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .21 -46.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.27 -4.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 22.4 +4.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .82 -74.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 18.3 -3.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.62 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.86 +2.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 23,481.8 -2.9%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  84.9 +.3

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.367 Trillion -.24%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.666 Million

• AAII % Bulls 33.7 -26.6%

• AAII % Bears 46.1 +29.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 24.0 (EXTREME FEAR from FEAR) -10.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 299.33 -2.7%

• Crude Oil 57.6/bbl. -1.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 183.77 +1.2%

• Natural Gas 3.00 -4.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%
  

• Heating Oil 218.1 -.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 109.1 (1,000/metric ton) +2.1%

• Gold 4,242.5 +4.6%
• Silver 51.8 +2.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 495.5 +.9%

• Copper 499.8 +2.6%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 350.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -3.8%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,250.0 USD/metric tonne -.7%

• CME Lumber  634.0 +3.9%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,330.4 +.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 327.5 USD/Short Ton -.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +.1 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2 +3.9 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.51 +2.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 413.8 +76.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 +93.5%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $214.0 Billion($1,329.19 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +16.0% +6.3 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.94 +1.06:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.32 +2.32: Growth Rate +18.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 33.4 -1.0

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 +3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +4.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 99.0%(+.7 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.75-4.0%, 0.0%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.25-4.5% on 10/29

• US Dollar Index 98.44 -.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,843.2 +.27%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 116,670.5 -7.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 198.7 -.01%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 +.7%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 54.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.0% -5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.549 Trillion +.08%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.082 Billion +8.2%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.95 -1.9%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 213.80 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 80.0 -2.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.5 -3.0%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.62 +5.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 147.9 -6.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.4 +5.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.5 -5.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.54 +.47%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.4 -.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.6% -10.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -4.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -32.5 basis points -8.5 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.5 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.4 -2.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 210.0 +5.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 243.0 +45.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 62.5 -.6%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 135.1 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 154.2 -2.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 122.0 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 603.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .56 +2.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,311.4B -2.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,500 n/a

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% n/a
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.0 -2.4%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.39% -1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 317,200 -1.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.9% -20.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +10.0% -6.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $102.5M -.11%

• Nationwide Gas $3.05/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,046.0 +5.7%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,650.9/40 ft Box +2.2%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 973.1 -4.1%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 55.0 +22.2%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 71.5 -5.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,900 -1.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,438,958 -17.3% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 49.0% -2.0 percentage points

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%

Leading Sectors

• Computer Hardware +5.1%

• Semis +5.0%
• Alt Energy +4.7%

• Shipping +4.1%
  

• Retail +3.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Defense -1.5%

• Electrification -1.6%
  

• Regional Banks -2.4%

• Computer Services -3.8%
  

• Insurance -4.5%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• LBRT, IRON, PRAX, RVMD, AXP, BETR, KEP, APPF, GILD, CNS, HROW, EBC, HONE, PRM, ZGN, SKY, FUTU, GRND, TFC, HDB, COF, OTF, IBN and BTQ

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (28)

• NAMS, STT, OXLC, DB, IONQ, GBCI, SRRK, USAR, NN, CCJ, SAND, RGLD, ORCL, UUUU, AIRO, SKYT, NBIS, UEC, ASPI, AUGO, PAAS, SKE, PGNY, IDR, DRD, PPTA, UAMY and HIMS

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Regional Bank Angst, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Medical Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.0 +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.92% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 +4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +4.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +16.0% -.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.94 +.38:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.82 +.55: Growth Rate +18.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .21 -24.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.27 +12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 +.2 point
• US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2% +.8 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 92.2% (+4.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 52.6%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +670 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +71 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slight Lower: On losses in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CLF)/-.45 

After the Close: 

• (CCK)/1.99
• (RLI)/.71
• (STLD)/2.64
• (WRB)/1.11
• (WTFC)/2.63
• (ZION)/1.46 

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The European Society of Medical Oncology Congress could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• President Trump has his sights once again on ending the Ukraine conflict, announcing another meeting with Russian Vladimir Putin after a first summit in Alaska failed to yield progress. 
• The Trump administration is poised to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, a move that would deliver a major win for carmakers.
• Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta is set to seal an almost $30 billion financing package for its data center site in rural Louisiana, marking the final step for the largest private capital deal on record.
• CME is planning to debut financial contracts tied to both sports games and economic indicators by the end of the year, according to sources.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• Lmfao this is allegedly an exchange John Bolton had with his friends while sending them classified information: "More stuff coming!!!... None of which we talk about!!! "Shhhh". 
• @elonmusk, imagine connecting the US and Russia, the Americas and the Afro-Eurasia with the Putin-Trump Tunnel - a 70-mile link symbolizing unity. Traditional costs are $65B+, but @boringcompany's tech could reduce it to <$8B. Let's build a future together! -@kadmitriev.
• China Bristles As Rare Earths 'Retaliatory' Curbs Foment G7 Backlash: 'US Stirring Up Panic'.
• How many people just realized that Dems had as many as 20 extra seats based on years of unconstitutional race-based gerrymandering?
• The Party Of Panic: How Democrats Turn Every Crisis Into A Skit.
• John Bolton is in deep trouble. According to the federal indictment against him, he not only stored thousands of pages of classified documents at his home long after his government employment ended, he regularly shared classified info with multiple uncleared individuals via unsecured Google and AOL email.
• BREAKING: Former Vice President Mike Pence has been IMPLICATED in The DOJ’s investigation of former National Security Advisor John Bolton related to Pence’s framing of General Flynn to get him fired, his illegal possession of classified documents and his role in January 6th. Bolton recently described Pence as a “consistent ally” during President Trump’s first term. Pence is reportedly also being probed for unlawful leaks including sensitive national security matters from the Trump White House to the leftist media.
• While John Bolton was trafficking top secret intel to his friends, Iran apparently hacked his email account, according to the 18-count federal indictment against him. 
• US Reports Biggest Ever Budget Surplus For Month Of September Thanks To Record Tariffs. 
• "If You Don't Buy, You'll Miss Out": Weimar Vibes As Aussies Line Up To Buy Physical Gold
  .
• 'Disruptions Come First, Benefits Take Time': Fed Warns Of AI's Imminent Impact On Job Market.
• More Than An Accident? Kyle Bass Sounds Alarm On U.S. Military Explosives Supply Chain After Tennessee Plant Blast.
• Extreme fear meets (almost) all-time highs – something doesn’t add up.
• NEW: Billionaire Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker won $1.4 million playing blackjack in Las Vegas last year, his office discloses. "I went on vacation with my wife, with some friends, I was incredibly lucky."
• Regional Banks Crash As More Credit "Cockroaches" Emerge. 
• "A Lot Of Moving Parts": Another New Record For Gold Amid Chaos In Bonds, Stocks, & Crypto.

• @CNBC

• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CNBC Daily Open: Bad loans by regional banks should concern us all.
• Asia-Pacific markets set for lower open as banking and trade fears take hold on Wall Street.
• Marc Benioff's call for troops in SF leads tech investor Ron Conway to leave Salesforce Foundation board. 
• Stock futures are little changed after regional bank worries fuel market sell-off: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Novo Nordisk, Interactive Brokers, CSX and more. 

• @WSJ 

• In a display of defiance against the U.S, Venezuela is mobilizing a "millions-strong militia" and moving troops into position on the Caribbean coast.
• Trump is trying to publicly de-escalate tensions with China to soothe markets while privately keeping up pressure on Beijing—a difficult balancing act that is being watched by Wall Street. 
• Regional banks came under renewed scrutiny after Zions Bancorp said it would take a large loss and revealed accusations of fraud against a set of borrowers who had ties to other lenders in the industry. 

• @newstart_2024 

• WEF advisor Yuval Harari just explained the globalist blueprint. Listen carefully. He says collaboration requires a "story" — and it "doesn't need to be true." He says science "is not about truth, it's about power." He says those who "own the data, own the future." This isn't a conspiracy theory. It's their stated plan. (video)

• @stkirsch

• Nobody has ever explained how, if vaccines don’t cause autism, that this could occur. This is the only time in human history where triplets got autism at the same time. Remarkably all got autism within hours AFTER a vaccine. What an amazing coincidence! (video)

• @VigilantFox

• DISTURBING: Texas just opened the gates to digital tyranny. SB2420, a dystopian UK-style online ID law, will soon force Texans to verify their age to access even the most basic online services—marking the first step toward a nationwide Digital ID system. Set to take effect January 1, 2026, the law hides behind “protecting children online,” but experts warn it’s just another Trojan horse for surveillance and mass data collection. Both Apple and Google admit it will require users to surrender personal details just to check the weather or to download an app. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• THE MAN WHO “BEAUTIFIED” THE CHARLIE KIRK CRIME SCENE SPEAKS OUT. "On 9/14/25, I was called by men who work for the state of Utah for help installing pavers… where Charlie Kirk was gunned down.” "I’d been asked to replace - to beautify - an area where a brother had been gunned down." "It was Sunday. I usually don't work on Sunday." "It was heavy… but we did it." Four days after the assassination, this man says he was hired to cover the exact spot where Charlie was assassinated. Not to investigate, but to bury it forever. (video)
• WHO DO YOU NOTICE? The same faces from every frame on September 10th. The same men who “protected” Charlie Kirk the day he was assassinated, now guarding Erika. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• An Open Letter to Kash Patel and Dan Bongino: Dear Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, We, the MAGA community, want to express our heartfelt gratitude for your tireless efforts. We recognize the challenges you face and appreciate that you’ve chosen this path over less demanding pursuits. Your dedication to seeking truth and serving the American people does not go unnoticed, and we stand firmly behind you. With the utmost respect, we urge you to reconsider dismissing those asking tough questions about the assassination of Charlie Kirk as mere “conspiracy theorists.” The term carries a weight that unfairly undermines the legitimate concerns of many who have been proven right time and again. It was in Fact a CIA created term used to undermine those who asked tough questions surrounding JFK’s Assassination. History shows that independent researchers—often labeled as conspiracy theorists—have uncovered truths long before government agencies or official narratives caught up. We were right about the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We were right about JFK’s assassination. We were right about 9/11. We were right about January 6th. We were right about Black Lives Matter. And so many other things…

• @wideawake_media

• Digital ID: This is the World Economic Forum's plan for you, straight from their website. The goal is to gradually and incrementally bring about a situation where every aspect of daily life—banking, food, travel, healthcare, energy usage, internet, social media, communications, etc—requires a valid digital ID, without which you are locked out.

• @TheIntelSCIF

• HILLARY CLINTON couldn't be proven GUILTY by the FBI from her infamous email scandal without taking OBAMA down with her. Obama used a pseudonym to conduct communications over the same non-secure email system which tanked Hillary's entire email investigation. This is only the surface level, it gets worse. They covered it all up, blamed it on the Russians, and attempted to take down a sitting president through a taxpayer funded treasonous color revolution with our own intelligence agencies and FBI. The only problem is that there is more that they swept under the rug that many people paid with their lives to expose which allegedly include connections to Epstein, Benghazi, child trafficking and abuse, pay to play politics, money laundering, and numerous other illegal activities implementing many other deep state players. (pic)

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY CRAP! Virginia Attorney General candidate Jason Miyares (R) PUMMELS political violence Jay Jones (D) during the debate...that is devastating. "I find it stunning that you say one of the pillars of your public safety platform is protecting children. Were you protecting Jennifer's children, when you said you wanted to see them DIE in their mother's arms?!" "How can ANYBODY who's ever worked in any of the crimes against children, all of the areas of federal and state local law department, how can they ever take YOU seriously, be the top prosecutor, knowing that you view that children should DIE to advance a political agenda?" "It's unconscionable, and if you were truly 'sorry,' you would not be running for this office - because you disqualified yourself." (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Zohran Mamdani is a Trojan horse for Obama and the Islamic takeover of America. “Great GPS tracking information — Zohran Mamdani — appears to have been at Barack Obama's place in Washington, D.C. twice in just 6 weeks. Who else was there? Leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood”. “And if you don't know who they are, you might want to study up on their history. They've been outlawed in Egypt, Syria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, and, oh, Austria under their anti terrorism laws. (video)
• Rep Anna Paulina Luna exposes to Joe Rogan that new Congress Reps are not told how to do legislation. The only thing that happens when they’re elected is they’re immediately put in front of lobbyists who take them out to dinner and they’re told how to vote. THIS is our problem. (video)

• @SenRonJohnson

• I urge every parent — every American — to watch “An Inconvenient Study.”
  @delbigtree does an excellent job exposing how the medical establishment has ignored parents whose children have suffered severe side effects from childhood vaccines. It’s well past time we start listening to parents and asking questions about what’s causing the skyrocketing rates of chronic illnesses in our country.

• @annvandersteel

• The U.S. government is shut down — but we’re still funding the United Nations, a foreign body now pushing a global tax on Americans. The UN isn’t above our Constitution. It doesn’t represent us. It leeches off us. DEFUND it. EXIT it. RECLAIM our sovereignty. (video)

• @ChildrensHD

• It doesn’t get more draconian than this. Bill Gates is now pushing an electronic tattoo to “mark” you as part of the push toward a digital ID system and programmable money. Catherine Austin Fitts: “Instead of introducing CBDC, we’re now going to introduce stablecoins and other privatized versions of CBDC that are programmable.” “You can’t have a complete control grid unless you get a digital ID and an all-digital financial transaction system.” “Bill Gates is now promoting an electronic tattoo so you won’t have to be inconvenienced by carrying a phone.” (video)

• @elonmusk

• BREAKING NEWS. The British Labour party PLUMMETS to historic low with only only 15% inlatest poll. This is their LOWEST vote share they have ever gotten since modern polling began. People are rejecting Socialism. The people of Britain want change!

• @Liz_churchill10

• KNOW YOUR ENEMY. “The next Pandemic will definitely get your attention…” -Bill Gates (2023). “All anti-vaxxers must be arrested…no exceptions…” -Dr. Peter Hotez (2024). “We’re definitely going to have another Pandemic…” -Dr. Fauci (2025).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 +2.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.25 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.23%
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.28 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.0 -.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 3.95% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.4 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.76%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.35%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Regional Bank Credit Quality Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.04%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.97 -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.94% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.6 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.0 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.6 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(49 of 500 reporting) +16.3% +1.3 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.56 +.32:  Growth Rate +12.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.47% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.27 +.30: Growth Rate +18.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.6 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 +.3 point
• US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.4% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 88.9% (-5.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 57.5%(+7.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -114 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slight Lower: On losses in my financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took profits in my financial longs
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks -5.6% 2) Alt Energy -5.1% 3) Insurance -3.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• INFY, CLF, TRV, MENS, CTRA, LTBR, HAL, PATH, AIG, BHF, CB, MTB, POWI, VBTX, KROS, KNSL, WTFC, HPQ, RF, FITB, GIG, SLDE, FBP, STOK, PNFP, COF, SLG, WBS, CBSH, IDR, TCBI, UAL, FNB, DBRG, EBC, BANC, ZBIO, MMC, ACHR, NAMS, JEF, SMR, ADUR, CRML, ASPI, HPE, NNE, UAMY, QUBT, SERV, CMC, KVUE, WAL, PL, UUUU, AMPX, FFIV, HOND, ZION, CLSK, EOSE, RGTI, CCCX, ARQQ and HSDT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NAMS 2) FLG 3) HPE 4) FBL 5) KEY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZION 2) JEF 3) FFIV 4) IIIN 5) LAC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IGV 3) KRE 4) XLY 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.8% 2) Electrification +1.7% 3) Shipping +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRAX, JBHT, PSNL, BTQ, GRAL, NVA, CYRX, DCTH, MUX, PGNY, TFIN, ARVN, SBSW, SION, KYIV, METC, EXK, WDC, PGNY, CAI, GFI, KNX, MU, EPAC, STX, AMRK, AVTR, SNA, VICR, EGO, WERN, AU, ASX, AMX, NEM, FWRD, CRM, ORCL, FNV, RYN, AEM, KT, HUBG, CLS, PCH, DEO, SNDR,  KRRO, ILMN, B, FN, BVN, AGI, AG, DNLI, COO, SA and HMY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALE 2) KYIV 3) HOLX 4) MTN 5) SLI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRAX 2) JBHT 3) MU 4) PGNY 5) STX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) CQQQ 3) SMH 4) XLU 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALLY)/1.00
• (AXP)/4.00
• (ALV)/2.08
• (CMA)/1.31
• (FITB)/.86
• (HBAN)/.37
• (RF)/.60
• (SLB)/.66
• (STT)/2.64
• (TFC)/.99 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1320K versus 1307K in Aug.
• Building Permits for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1343K versus 1330K in Aug.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in Aug. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, European Society of Medical Oncology Congress, IMF meetings and the weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST