S&P 500 1,114.80 +.43%
NASDAQ 1,893.94 +1.29%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.91%
Airlines +2.21%
Semis +1.85%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.18%
Oil Service -1.51%
Broadcasting -2.20%
Other
Crude Oil 49.56 -.68%
Natural Gas 6.91 +8.82%
Gold 414.90 +.17%
Base Metals 117.28 +.88%
U.S. Dollar 88.07 -.05%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.09% +2.10%
VIX 13.21 -4.48%
Put/Call .84 -6.67%
NYSE Arms .79 -11.24%
After-hours Movers
TLB -8.29% after cutting 3Q forecast.
RECN -4.84% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and saying future hiring may hurt operating income.
NARA +4.15%
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PFE. Goldman reiterated Underperform on TSG and S.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose today, led by technology shares, after oil prices fell and an economic report showed faster economic growth than originally expected. After the close, Saudi Arabia's top religious authority banned the use of camera cellular phones, saying the devices are responsible for helping to spread "obscenity," the AP reported. The Montreal Expos said they're moving to Washington next season, bringing Major League Baseball back to the nation's capital after a 33-year absence, Bloomberg said. The chairman of a U.S. Congress panel responsible for Fannie Mae gained authority to subpoena executives at the biggest U.S. mortgage finance company for information related to allegations of accounting violations, Bloomberg reported. AIG said the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating the company for helping PNC Financial Services remove bad loans from its books, Bloomberg said. A judge struck down portions of the USA Patriot Act requiring Internet and telephone companies to surrender customer records sought in terrorism investigations and barring notice to clients that their data was handed over, Bloomberg reported. Micron Technology reported a second-straight quarterly profit as sales jumped 34%, Bloomberg reported. Delphi said the U.S. SEC is investigating $86.5 million of the company's transactions with computer-services provider Electronic Data Systems, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as my rising internet and homebuilding longs offset losses in my commodity-related longs. I covered a few technology shorts in the afternoon and added some semiconductor longs, leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. One of my new longs is BRCM and I am using a $26.50 stop-loss on this position. Volume increased and the advance/decline line was pretty strong today. However, measures of investor complacency rose again. The major U.S. indices will likely remain strong through week's end.
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
Mid-day Uddate
S&P 500 1,110.61 +.05%
NASDAQ 1,889.26 +1.03%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.76%
Semis +2.29%
Airlines +2.07%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.48%
Broadcasting -1.72%
Oil Service -2.19%
Other
Crude Oil 48.60 -2.71%
Natural Gas 6.73 +7.70%
Gold 415.20 +.24%
Base Metals 117.28 +.88%
U.S. Dollar 88.19 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.09% +2.20%
VIX 13.33 -3.62%
Put/Call .73 -18.89%
NYSE Arms 1.05 +17.98%
Market Movers
ORBZ +30.8% after Cendant(CD) agreed to buy it for $1.25 billion.
GOOG +4.0% after Morgan Stanley rated it Overweight.
IACI +5.6% on ORBZ news.
JMDT +41.0% on strong IPO demand.
CAT +3.9% on continued optimism over earnings forecast.
PFCB +5.5% after meeting 3Q estimates.
SHFL +5.8% as Calyon Securities rated it Add.
INSP +5.1% as Raymond James rated it Strong Buy.
BLUD +7.8% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 05 forecast.
PCLN +9.6% on ORBZ news.
PDX -15.2% after lowering 3Q/4Q outlook.
CPC -12.7% after cutting 04 guidance and multiple downgrades.
TSCO -5.8% after lowering 3Q forecast.
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP rose 3.3% versus estimates of 3.0% and a prior estimate of 2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.6% versus estimates of 1.6% and a prior estimate of 1.6%.
Final 2Q Price Deflator rose 3.2% versus estimates of 3.2% and a prior estimate of 3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, AMT, SLR, BIIB, AMGN, GDT, MET, CCL, RCL, GCI, CAT, Goldman reiterated Underperform on FHCC and DJ. Citi SmithBarney rated DEX Sell, target $19. Citi said to Buy WMT on weakness, target $65. Citi reiterated Sell on CLX, target $47. Citi reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90. Citi reiterated Buy on LOW, target $67. Citi reiterated Sell on GDT, target $54. JNY raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. SPH cut to Reduce at UBS, target $32. WPI rated Outperform at CSFB, target $37. IPXL rated Outperform at CSFB, target $22. MAR raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. LQI raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising mid-day as energy prices fall and a report showed economic growth exceeded expectations for the third-quarter. Sprint plans to provide Internet and telephone service to a chain of U.S. coffeehouses owned by the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Columbia, the NY Times reported. Burger King signed up a franchise partner to open its first restaurants in Brazil, Valor Economico reported. China will pursue reunification with Taiwan through peaceful means to keep the country whole, China Central TV said. Martha Stewart will serve her prison term for obstruction of justice at a facility in West Virginia, CNBC reported. Many Floridians are suffering depression and anxiety after living through four hurricanes in six weeks, the AP reported. Senator Brownback said lawmakers from the U.S. senate and House of Representatives agreed to raise the maximum fines for broadcasting indecency, the LA Times reported. A measure of the number of applications to buy a home or refinance existing mortgages rose last week to the highest level since early May, Bloomberg reported. ConocoPhillips will buy 7.6% of OAO Lukoil of Russia for $1.99 billion and said it may raise that stake further, Bloomberg reported. SpaceShipOne, financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and built by aviation pioneer Burt Rutan, rocketed high over the California desert early today in a quest to win a $10 million competition designed to accelerate space tourism, Bloomberg said. The IMF said world economic growth will be a very robust 4.3% in 2005 after reaching 5.0% this year, the strongest in almost 30 years, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil fell for the first session in 10 after the Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles, easing concern about the production and shipping disruptions caused by Hurricane Ivan, Bloomberg reported. U.S. GDP growth rose 3.3%, more than previously forecast for the third-quarter, on stronger exports and inventory rebuilding, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on strength in my internet and homebuilding longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 100% net long. The tone of the market is pretty good on the unexpected build in oil inventories and better economic growth. Considering recent disruptions, the build bodes well for further declines in oil prices. Interest rates should continue heading modestly high through year-end on a reacceleration in U.S. economic growth. Shorting TLT is one way to play this. I expect stocks to continue moving modestly higher over the next couple of days on short-covering, end-of-the-quarter window dressing, better economic data, declining energy prices and the Presidential debate.
NASDAQ 1,889.26 +1.03%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.76%
Semis +2.29%
Airlines +2.07%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.48%
Broadcasting -1.72%
Oil Service -2.19%
Other
Crude Oil 48.60 -2.71%
Natural Gas 6.73 +7.70%
Gold 415.20 +.24%
Base Metals 117.28 +.88%
U.S. Dollar 88.19 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.09% +2.20%
VIX 13.33 -3.62%
Put/Call .73 -18.89%
NYSE Arms 1.05 +17.98%
Market Movers
ORBZ +30.8% after Cendant(CD) agreed to buy it for $1.25 billion.
GOOG +4.0% after Morgan Stanley rated it Overweight.
IACI +5.6% on ORBZ news.
JMDT +41.0% on strong IPO demand.
CAT +3.9% on continued optimism over earnings forecast.
PFCB +5.5% after meeting 3Q estimates.
SHFL +5.8% as Calyon Securities rated it Add.
INSP +5.1% as Raymond James rated it Strong Buy.
BLUD +7.8% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 05 forecast.
PCLN +9.6% on ORBZ news.
PDX -15.2% after lowering 3Q/4Q outlook.
CPC -12.7% after cutting 04 guidance and multiple downgrades.
TSCO -5.8% after lowering 3Q forecast.
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP rose 3.3% versus estimates of 3.0% and a prior estimate of 2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.6% versus estimates of 1.6% and a prior estimate of 1.6%.
Final 2Q Price Deflator rose 3.2% versus estimates of 3.2% and a prior estimate of 3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, AMT, SLR, BIIB, AMGN, GDT, MET, CCL, RCL, GCI, CAT, Goldman reiterated Underperform on FHCC and DJ. Citi SmithBarney rated DEX Sell, target $19. Citi said to Buy WMT on weakness, target $65. Citi reiterated Sell on CLX, target $47. Citi reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90. Citi reiterated Buy on LOW, target $67. Citi reiterated Sell on GDT, target $54. JNY raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. SPH cut to Reduce at UBS, target $32. WPI rated Outperform at CSFB, target $37. IPXL rated Outperform at CSFB, target $22. MAR raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. LQI raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising mid-day as energy prices fall and a report showed economic growth exceeded expectations for the third-quarter. Sprint plans to provide Internet and telephone service to a chain of U.S. coffeehouses owned by the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Columbia, the NY Times reported. Burger King signed up a franchise partner to open its first restaurants in Brazil, Valor Economico reported. China will pursue reunification with Taiwan through peaceful means to keep the country whole, China Central TV said. Martha Stewart will serve her prison term for obstruction of justice at a facility in West Virginia, CNBC reported. Many Floridians are suffering depression and anxiety after living through four hurricanes in six weeks, the AP reported. Senator Brownback said lawmakers from the U.S. senate and House of Representatives agreed to raise the maximum fines for broadcasting indecency, the LA Times reported. A measure of the number of applications to buy a home or refinance existing mortgages rose last week to the highest level since early May, Bloomberg reported. ConocoPhillips will buy 7.6% of OAO Lukoil of Russia for $1.99 billion and said it may raise that stake further, Bloomberg reported. SpaceShipOne, financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and built by aviation pioneer Burt Rutan, rocketed high over the California desert early today in a quest to win a $10 million competition designed to accelerate space tourism, Bloomberg said. The IMF said world economic growth will be a very robust 4.3% in 2005 after reaching 5.0% this year, the strongest in almost 30 years, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil fell for the first session in 10 after the Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles, easing concern about the production and shipping disruptions caused by Hurricane Ivan, Bloomberg reported. U.S. GDP growth rose 3.3%, more than previously forecast for the third-quarter, on stronger exports and inventory rebuilding, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on strength in my internet and homebuilding longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 100% net long. The tone of the market is pretty good on the unexpected build in oil inventories and better economic growth. Considering recent disruptions, the build bodes well for further declines in oil prices. Interest rates should continue heading modestly high through year-end on a reacceleration in U.S. economic growth. Shorting TLT is one way to play this. I expect stocks to continue moving modestly higher over the next couple of days on short-covering, end-of-the-quarter window dressing, better economic data, declining energy prices and the Presidential debate.
Wednesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AM/.00
ARRO/.34
BLUD/.14
MKC/.32
MU/.20
RECN/.32
Splits
CATY 2-for-1
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP estimated +3.0% versus a prior estimate of +2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption estimated +1.6% versus a prior estimate of +1.6%.
Final 2Q GDP Price Deflator estimated +3.2% versus a prior estimate of +3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DVN, SLR, AMT, CLX and AMGN.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly mixed as strength in Australian shares is being offset by weakness in Hong Kong. The U.S. may bring North Korea before the United Nations Security Council if the communist country doesn't continue talks to dismantle its nuclear programs, Agence France-Presse reported. Funds owned by AMP Ltd., Australia's largest life insurer, raised their stake in Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings to 5.2%, betting that U.S. distribution and technology accords will bolster earnings, Bloomberg reported. Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor may start production in Russia to boost their market share in what is expected to be the world's third-fastest growing car market over the next four years, Bloomberg said. China's university graduates face increasing pressure to find jobs, with the number of students expected to complete their degrees in 2005 rising 21% from this year to 3.38 million, the official Xinhua news agency said. The dollar fell against the yen in Asia after Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Hoenig said a lower dollar helped with the U.S. trade deficit and that the news on inflation is good, Bloomberg reported. Taiwan may have the technology to mass produce mid-range missiles capable of striking Shanghai in two years, a lawmaker said, adding teeth to Premier Yu Shyi-kun's warning that the island will retaliate if China attacks, Bloomberg reported. American International Group Chairman Greenberg said he may buy U.S. property and casualty competitors stung by losses, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on a continuation of today's rally. I will closely watch the market's reaction to the energy inventory data before shifting the Portfolio's market exposure. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
AM/.00
ARRO/.34
BLUD/.14
MKC/.32
MU/.20
RECN/.32
Splits
CATY 2-for-1
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP estimated +3.0% versus a prior estimate of +2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption estimated +1.6% versus a prior estimate of +1.6%.
Final 2Q GDP Price Deflator estimated +3.2% versus a prior estimate of +3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DVN, SLR, AMT, CLX and AMGN.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly mixed as strength in Australian shares is being offset by weakness in Hong Kong. The U.S. may bring North Korea before the United Nations Security Council if the communist country doesn't continue talks to dismantle its nuclear programs, Agence France-Presse reported. Funds owned by AMP Ltd., Australia's largest life insurer, raised their stake in Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings to 5.2%, betting that U.S. distribution and technology accords will bolster earnings, Bloomberg reported. Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor may start production in Russia to boost their market share in what is expected to be the world's third-fastest growing car market over the next four years, Bloomberg said. China's university graduates face increasing pressure to find jobs, with the number of students expected to complete their degrees in 2005 rising 21% from this year to 3.38 million, the official Xinhua news agency said. The dollar fell against the yen in Asia after Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Hoenig said a lower dollar helped with the U.S. trade deficit and that the news on inflation is good, Bloomberg reported. Taiwan may have the technology to mass produce mid-range missiles capable of striking Shanghai in two years, a lawmaker said, adding teeth to Premier Yu Shyi-kun's warning that the island will retaliate if China attacks, Bloomberg reported. American International Group Chairman Greenberg said he may buy U.S. property and casualty competitors stung by losses, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on a continuation of today's rally. I will closely watch the market's reaction to the energy inventory data before shifting the Portfolio's market exposure. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,110.06 +.59%
NASDAQ 1,869.87 +.54%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +4.10%
Airlines +3.33%
Commodity +2.78%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.40%
Semis -.87%
Homebuilders -1.49%
Other
Crude Oil 49.88 -.04%
Natural Gas 6.45 +1.56%
Gold 414.00 -.05%
Base Metals 116.26 -.75%
U.S. Dollar 88.11 -.20%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.00% +.38%
VIX 13.83 -5.40%
Put/Call .90 -7.22%
NYSE Arms .89 -44.38%
After-hours Movers
IACI +3.85% on ORBZ news.
ORBZ +27.59% on reports it may be purchased by Cendant for about $1.2 billion.
PCLN +11.61% on ORBZ news.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on JNPR, AYE and MET.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose today, led by surging commodity-related shares. After the close, China Minmetals has put in place the financing needed for a planned $5 billion takeover of Canada's biggest mining company, Noranda Inc., Reuters reported. Medicare, the U.S. medical-cost reimbursement program for the elderly, will increase the number of heart conditions that qualify for treatment with implantable cardiac defibrillators, CNBC said. Caterpillar raised its 2004 sales forecast and said revenue next year will increase by about 10% from this year as demand for its machines and engines grows, Bloomberg said. Preparations for Afghanistan's presidential election on Oct. 9 are "on track," a United Nations official said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as my rising steel and internet longs offset my declining homebuilding and security longs. I covered a few technology shorts and added some new Chinese ADR longs in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is ACH and I am using a stop-loss of $60.45 on this position. The tone of the market improved quite a bit in the afternoon, despite rising energy prices, as volume picked-up and the advance/decline line finished at its highs for the day. However, measures of investor anxiety fell again and are approaching very complacent levels. U.S. stocks should drift modestly higher through week's end on better economic data, short-covering, the Presidential debate and end-of-the quarter window-dressing. Tomorrow's reaction to the energy inventory data will also help determine the market's short-term direction.
NASDAQ 1,869.87 +.54%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +4.10%
Airlines +3.33%
Commodity +2.78%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.40%
Semis -.87%
Homebuilders -1.49%
Other
Crude Oil 49.88 -.04%
Natural Gas 6.45 +1.56%
Gold 414.00 -.05%
Base Metals 116.26 -.75%
U.S. Dollar 88.11 -.20%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.00% +.38%
VIX 13.83 -5.40%
Put/Call .90 -7.22%
NYSE Arms .89 -44.38%
After-hours Movers
IACI +3.85% on ORBZ news.
ORBZ +27.59% on reports it may be purchased by Cendant for about $1.2 billion.
PCLN +11.61% on ORBZ news.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on JNPR, AYE and MET.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose today, led by surging commodity-related shares. After the close, China Minmetals has put in place the financing needed for a planned $5 billion takeover of Canada's biggest mining company, Noranda Inc., Reuters reported. Medicare, the U.S. medical-cost reimbursement program for the elderly, will increase the number of heart conditions that qualify for treatment with implantable cardiac defibrillators, CNBC said. Caterpillar raised its 2004 sales forecast and said revenue next year will increase by about 10% from this year as demand for its machines and engines grows, Bloomberg said. Preparations for Afghanistan's presidential election on Oct. 9 are "on track," a United Nations official said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as my rising steel and internet longs offset my declining homebuilding and security longs. I covered a few technology shorts and added some new Chinese ADR longs in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is ACH and I am using a stop-loss of $60.45 on this position. The tone of the market improved quite a bit in the afternoon, despite rising energy prices, as volume picked-up and the advance/decline line finished at its highs for the day. However, measures of investor anxiety fell again and are approaching very complacent levels. U.S. stocks should drift modestly higher through week's end on better economic data, short-covering, the Presidential debate and end-of-the quarter window-dressing. Tomorrow's reaction to the energy inventory data will also help determine the market's short-term direction.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,106.87 +.30%
NASDAQ 1,861.67 +.10%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.93%
Airlines +2.79%
Commodity +2.56%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.46%
Homebuilders -1.46%
Semis -1.58%
Other
Crude Oil 49.80 +.52%
Natural Gas 5.51 +4.71%
Gold 413.40 +.66%
Base Metals 116.26 -.75%
U.S. Dollar 88.18 -.12%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.02 +.72%
VIX 14.23 -2.67%
Put/Call .90 -7.22%
NYSE Arms 1.12 -30.0%
Market Movers
AGIX +57.6% after saying its experimental drug for clogged arteries significantly reduced the amount of fatty plaque in blood vessels.
JNPR -5.1% on Friedman Billings downgrade to Market Perform.
NABI +16.2% after announcing positive test results for its antismoking vaccine.
GGC +7.9% after saying full-year sales would be better than estimates.
CNC +11.7% after agreeing to buy two health plans for about $93 million to gain patients in Kansas and Missouri.
GOOG +4.1% after multiple Buy ratings by underwriters.
STTX +10.7% after substantially boosting 4Q and 04 outlook.
IMCL +5.46% after Friedman, Billings upgrade to Outperform.
TZOO -13.8% on profit-taking.
DJO -13.2% after lowering 3Q/4Q guidance.
SNA -11.2% after lowering 3Q/04 outlook and Robert Baird downgrade to Underperform.
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for September was 96.8 versus estimates of 99.5.
Recommendations
GOOG rated Outperform at CSFB, target $145. LWSN raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. GOOG rated Outperform at Thomas Weisel. GOOG rated Overweight at JP Morgan. UTEK raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch, target $22. GOOG rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on RIG, DO, KSS, GDT, Goldman reiterated Underperform on PBG. Goldman reiterated Attractive view of Oil Service sector, favorites are RIG, DO, SLB, BHI and SII. Citi SmithBarney says to Buy DOW and LYO. Citi reiterated Buy on PRE, target $69. Citi reiterated Buy on EMC, target $13.50. Citi reiterated Buy on SMTC, target $24. Citi reiterated Sell on ISIL, target $14. Citi reiterated Buy on AFC, target $36. Citi reiterated Buy on WR, target $22.50. Citi reiterated Buy on NPSP, target $25.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly higher mid-day as a weaker consumer confidence report is being more than offset by strength in commodity-related stocks. Saudi Arabia will raise oil production to 11 million barrels a day, the AP reported. Fannie Mae's need to restate earnings will be decided by the SEC, Reuters reported. A top al-Qaeda leader was seen in July meeting in Honduras with leaders of a Salvadoran criminal gang that has roots in the U.S., including a presence in Washington, D.C., the Washington Times reported. Major League Baseball may disclose that Washington, D.C. will be the new home of the Montreal Expos on Thursday, the AP reported. The San Francisco 49ers professional football team sold the naming right to Candlestick Park to Monster Cable Products for about $6 million over four years, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Amazon.com and Microsoft filed lawsuits to fight "spoofing" and "phishing," or the use of forged e-mail that purports to come from Amazon.com, Hotmail.com and other domains, Bloomberg reported. Bonds of Allstate and other home and auto insurers are holding steady after Hurricane Jeanne became the fourth storm in seven weeks to hit Florida and generate as much as $26 billion of damage claims, Bloomberg said. SpaceShipOne, a spacecraft financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, will travel more than 62 miles above the California desert tomorrow in its first official attempt to win a $10 million competition to encourage space tourism, Bloomberg reported. Cisco Systems will sell 180,000 phones that transmit phone calls over the Internet to Bank of America, Bloomberg reported. The value of derivatives traded outside exchanges more than doubled to $1.2 trillion a day in the three years through April led by dollar-denominated interest-rate contracts, the Bank for International Settlements said. Google, whose shares are up 39% since its IPO, may rise further as it boosts advertising revenue and international sales, CSFB and JP Morgan said in research reports. Foreign-exchange trading surged to a record daily average of $1.9 trillion this year as hedge funds and other money managers increases bets on currencies, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day as declines in my security and homebuilding longs are more than offsetting my declining semi and software shorts. I added a few alternative energy, wireless and internet longs this morning, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. One of my new longs is PLUG and I am using a $5.90 stop-loss on this position. End-of-the quarter window-dressing, better economic data, the Presidential debate and short-covering should push stocks modestly higher over the next few days.
NASDAQ 1,861.67 +.10%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.93%
Airlines +2.79%
Commodity +2.56%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.46%
Homebuilders -1.46%
Semis -1.58%
Other
Crude Oil 49.80 +.52%
Natural Gas 5.51 +4.71%
Gold 413.40 +.66%
Base Metals 116.26 -.75%
U.S. Dollar 88.18 -.12%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.02 +.72%
VIX 14.23 -2.67%
Put/Call .90 -7.22%
NYSE Arms 1.12 -30.0%
Market Movers
AGIX +57.6% after saying its experimental drug for clogged arteries significantly reduced the amount of fatty plaque in blood vessels.
JNPR -5.1% on Friedman Billings downgrade to Market Perform.
NABI +16.2% after announcing positive test results for its antismoking vaccine.
GGC +7.9% after saying full-year sales would be better than estimates.
CNC +11.7% after agreeing to buy two health plans for about $93 million to gain patients in Kansas and Missouri.
GOOG +4.1% after multiple Buy ratings by underwriters.
STTX +10.7% after substantially boosting 4Q and 04 outlook.
IMCL +5.46% after Friedman, Billings upgrade to Outperform.
TZOO -13.8% on profit-taking.
DJO -13.2% after lowering 3Q/4Q guidance.
SNA -11.2% after lowering 3Q/04 outlook and Robert Baird downgrade to Underperform.
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for September was 96.8 versus estimates of 99.5.
Recommendations
GOOG rated Outperform at CSFB, target $145. LWSN raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. GOOG rated Outperform at Thomas Weisel. GOOG rated Overweight at JP Morgan. UTEK raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch, target $22. GOOG rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on RIG, DO, KSS, GDT, Goldman reiterated Underperform on PBG. Goldman reiterated Attractive view of Oil Service sector, favorites are RIG, DO, SLB, BHI and SII. Citi SmithBarney says to Buy DOW and LYO. Citi reiterated Buy on PRE, target $69. Citi reiterated Buy on EMC, target $13.50. Citi reiterated Buy on SMTC, target $24. Citi reiterated Sell on ISIL, target $14. Citi reiterated Buy on AFC, target $36. Citi reiterated Buy on WR, target $22.50. Citi reiterated Buy on NPSP, target $25.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly higher mid-day as a weaker consumer confidence report is being more than offset by strength in commodity-related stocks. Saudi Arabia will raise oil production to 11 million barrels a day, the AP reported. Fannie Mae's need to restate earnings will be decided by the SEC, Reuters reported. A top al-Qaeda leader was seen in July meeting in Honduras with leaders of a Salvadoran criminal gang that has roots in the U.S., including a presence in Washington, D.C., the Washington Times reported. Major League Baseball may disclose that Washington, D.C. will be the new home of the Montreal Expos on Thursday, the AP reported. The San Francisco 49ers professional football team sold the naming right to Candlestick Park to Monster Cable Products for about $6 million over four years, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Amazon.com and Microsoft filed lawsuits to fight "spoofing" and "phishing," or the use of forged e-mail that purports to come from Amazon.com, Hotmail.com and other domains, Bloomberg reported. Bonds of Allstate and other home and auto insurers are holding steady after Hurricane Jeanne became the fourth storm in seven weeks to hit Florida and generate as much as $26 billion of damage claims, Bloomberg said. SpaceShipOne, a spacecraft financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, will travel more than 62 miles above the California desert tomorrow in its first official attempt to win a $10 million competition to encourage space tourism, Bloomberg reported. Cisco Systems will sell 180,000 phones that transmit phone calls over the Internet to Bank of America, Bloomberg reported. The value of derivatives traded outside exchanges more than doubled to $1.2 trillion a day in the three years through April led by dollar-denominated interest-rate contracts, the Bank for International Settlements said. Google, whose shares are up 39% since its IPO, may rise further as it boosts advertising revenue and international sales, CSFB and JP Morgan said in research reports. Foreign-exchange trading surged to a record daily average of $1.9 trillion this year as hedge funds and other money managers increases bets on currencies, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day as declines in my security and homebuilding longs are more than offsetting my declining semi and software shorts. I added a few alternative energy, wireless and internet longs this morning, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. One of my new longs is PLUG and I am using a $5.90 stop-loss on this position. End-of-the quarter window-dressing, better economic data, the Presidential debate and short-covering should push stocks modestly higher over the next few days.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
EMMS/.21
SLR/.04
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for September estimated at 99.5 versus 98.2 in August.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs said to Buy AIG, ALL, ENH and RE on any weakness. Goldman reiterated Outperform on DVN and Underperform on QGENF.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower on continuing worries that high energy prices will hurt exporters in the region. It may take "18 months to two years" to boost earnings at Coca-Cola, the Financial Times reported, citing Chairman and CEO Isdell. North Korea has "weaponized" the enriched uranium from 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, the AP reported. AT&T agreed to a doubling of the interest premium on its bank credit line after the telephone company's bond rating was lowered to non-investment grade, Bloomberg reported. China may award an $8 billion order for four nuclear reactors to an overseas supplier such as Areva SA, Westinghouse Electric or Siemens AG as part of the world's biggest nuclear power construction program, Bloomberg said. Pfizer appealed China's revocation of its Viagra patent in a case that may test the nation's commitment to stronger protection for intellectual property rights, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is rising above $50/bbl. in NY on concern rebel attacks in Nigeria may reduce supply from Africa's biggest oil producer at a time when U.S. inventories are close to a 29-year low, Bloomberg said. America Coming Together, a 527 political group backed by billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros, is paying 1,500 people $8-$12 an hour to go door-to-door in 17 battleground states to register voters, urging them to vote for Senator Kerry, Bloomberg Reported. The group has raised $80 million and is the best-funded get-out-the-vote effort in Democratic Party history, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.04%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly lower in the morning on continuing worries over high oil prices and profit-taking. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
EMMS/.21
SLR/.04
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for September estimated at 99.5 versus 98.2 in August.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs said to Buy AIG, ALL, ENH and RE on any weakness. Goldman reiterated Outperform on DVN and Underperform on QGENF.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower on continuing worries that high energy prices will hurt exporters in the region. It may take "18 months to two years" to boost earnings at Coca-Cola, the Financial Times reported, citing Chairman and CEO Isdell. North Korea has "weaponized" the enriched uranium from 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, the AP reported. AT&T agreed to a doubling of the interest premium on its bank credit line after the telephone company's bond rating was lowered to non-investment grade, Bloomberg reported. China may award an $8 billion order for four nuclear reactors to an overseas supplier such as Areva SA, Westinghouse Electric or Siemens AG as part of the world's biggest nuclear power construction program, Bloomberg said. Pfizer appealed China's revocation of its Viagra patent in a case that may test the nation's commitment to stronger protection for intellectual property rights, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is rising above $50/bbl. in NY on concern rebel attacks in Nigeria may reduce supply from Africa's biggest oil producer at a time when U.S. inventories are close to a 29-year low, Bloomberg said. America Coming Together, a 527 political group backed by billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros, is paying 1,500 people $8-$12 an hour to go door-to-door in 17 battleground states to register voters, urging them to vote for Senator Kerry, Bloomberg Reported. The group has raised $80 million and is the best-funded get-out-the-vote effort in Democratic Party history, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.04%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly lower in the morning on continuing worries over high oil prices and profit-taking. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into tomorrow.
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