Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,106.87 +.30%
NASDAQ 1,861.67 +.10%


Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.93%
Airlines +2.79%
Commodity +2.56%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.46%
Homebuilders -1.46%
Semis -1.58%

Other
Crude Oil 49.80 +.52%
Natural Gas 5.51 +4.71%
Gold 413.40 +.66%
Base Metals 116.26 -.75%
U.S. Dollar 88.18 -.12%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.02 +.72%
VIX 14.23 -2.67%
Put/Call .90 -7.22%
NYSE Arms 1.12 -30.0%

Market Movers
AGIX +57.6% after saying its experimental drug for clogged arteries significantly reduced the amount of fatty plaque in blood vessels.
JNPR -5.1% on Friedman Billings downgrade to Market Perform.
NABI +16.2% after announcing positive test results for its antismoking vaccine.
GGC +7.9% after saying full-year sales would be better than estimates.
CNC +11.7% after agreeing to buy two health plans for about $93 million to gain patients in Kansas and Missouri.
GOOG +4.1% after multiple Buy ratings by underwriters.
STTX +10.7% after substantially boosting 4Q and 04 outlook.
IMCL +5.46% after Friedman, Billings upgrade to Outperform.
TZOO -13.8% on profit-taking.
DJO -13.2% after lowering 3Q/4Q guidance.
SNA -11.2% after lowering 3Q/04 outlook and Robert Baird downgrade to Underperform.

Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for September was 96.8 versus estimates of 99.5.

Recommendations
GOOG rated Outperform at CSFB, target $145. LWSN raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. GOOG rated Outperform at Thomas Weisel. GOOG rated Overweight at JP Morgan. UTEK raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch, target $22. GOOG rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on RIG, DO, KSS, GDT, Goldman reiterated Underperform on PBG. Goldman reiterated Attractive view of Oil Service sector, favorites are RIG, DO, SLB, BHI and SII. Citi SmithBarney says to Buy DOW and LYO. Citi reiterated Buy on PRE, target $69. Citi reiterated Buy on EMC, target $13.50. Citi reiterated Buy on SMTC, target $24. Citi reiterated Sell on ISIL, target $14. Citi reiterated Buy on AFC, target $36. Citi reiterated Buy on WR, target $22.50. Citi reiterated Buy on NPSP, target $25.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly higher mid-day as a weaker consumer confidence report is being more than offset by strength in commodity-related stocks. Saudi Arabia will raise oil production to 11 million barrels a day, the AP reported. Fannie Mae's need to restate earnings will be decided by the SEC, Reuters reported. A top al-Qaeda leader was seen in July meeting in Honduras with leaders of a Salvadoran criminal gang that has roots in the U.S., including a presence in Washington, D.C., the Washington Times reported. Major League Baseball may disclose that Washington, D.C. will be the new home of the Montreal Expos on Thursday, the AP reported. The San Francisco 49ers professional football team sold the naming right to Candlestick Park to Monster Cable Products for about $6 million over four years, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Amazon.com and Microsoft filed lawsuits to fight "spoofing" and "phishing," or the use of forged e-mail that purports to come from Amazon.com, Hotmail.com and other domains, Bloomberg reported. Bonds of Allstate and other home and auto insurers are holding steady after Hurricane Jeanne became the fourth storm in seven weeks to hit Florida and generate as much as $26 billion of damage claims, Bloomberg said. SpaceShipOne, a spacecraft financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, will travel more than 62 miles above the California desert tomorrow in its first official attempt to win a $10 million competition to encourage space tourism, Bloomberg reported. Cisco Systems will sell 180,000 phones that transmit phone calls over the Internet to Bank of America, Bloomberg reported. The value of derivatives traded outside exchanges more than doubled to $1.2 trillion a day in the three years through April led by dollar-denominated interest-rate contracts, the Bank for International Settlements said. Google, whose shares are up 39% since its IPO, may rise further as it boosts advertising revenue and international sales, CSFB and JP Morgan said in research reports. Foreign-exchange trading surged to a record daily average of $1.9 trillion this year as hedge funds and other money managers increases bets on currencies, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day as declines in my security and homebuilding longs are more than offsetting my declining semi and software shorts. I added a few alternative energy, wireless and internet longs this morning, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. One of my new longs is PLUG and I am using a $5.90 stop-loss on this position. End-of-the quarter window-dressing, better economic data, the Presidential debate and short-covering should push stocks modestly higher over the next few days.

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