Thursday, September 30, 2004

Thursday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CMN/.27
STZ/.70
FDO/.26

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
Personal Income for August estimated up .4% versus a .1% rise in July.
Personal Spending for August estimated up .1% versus a .8% increase in July.
PCE Deflator (YoY) for August estimated up 2.2% versus a 2.4% rise in July.
PCE Core (Yoy) for August estimated up 1.5% versus a 1.5% increase in July.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 343K versus 350K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated at 2875K versus 2883K prior.
Chicago Purchasing Manager for September estimated at 58.0 versus 57.3 in August.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Non-life Insurance industry. Goldman reiterated Outperform on IBM, TYC, GE and Underperform on FHN, PGL, FHCC.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over better U.S. economic growth and falling oil prices. About $14 billion should be spent upgrading power plants and transmission lines in the U.S. Rocky Mountain states, the AP reported. Genentech's breast-cancer treatment Herceptin may work in some types of lung cancer, Reuters reported. CEOs of three of the world's biggest automakers asked Treasury Secretary John Snow to urge Japan not to resume yen sales that they say unfairly make Japanese cars less expensive in the U.S., Bloomberg reported. Caterpillar, its rival Komatsu and SGS SA, which test mineral samples, said sales are rising in Mongolia from a surge in mining exploration in the country, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Medicare advisers in November will assess the safety and cost of surgery as a way for patients to lose weight, the NY Times reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on better economic data, gains in Asia, declining oil prices, short-covering and end-of-the-quarter window dressing. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.

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