Thursday, September 16, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,123.50 +.28%
NASDAQ 1,904.08 +.40%


Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +1.44%
Fashion +1.30%
Iron/Steel +1.23%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.09%
Tobacco -.27%
HMOs -.42%

Other
Crude Oil 44.17 +.64%
Natural Gas 4.78 +1.29%
Gold 406.60 +.02%
Base Metals 110.01 +1.13%
U.S. Dollar 88.81 -.38%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.07% -2.22%
VIX 14.39 -1.71%
Put/Call .76 -19.15%
NYSE Arms 1.45 -22.46%

After-hours Movers
TEK +8.7% after beating 1Q estimates substantially and raising 2Q guidance.
CAMD +13.49% after reiterating 2Q guidance.
NTBK -7.54% after cutting 3Q outlook substantially.
MKSI -8.89% after cutting 3Q and 4Q guidance.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PFE, NKE and NEM. Goldman reiterated Underperform on SGP, RAI and MRK.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished modestly higher today on optimism over falling interest rates and declining inflation fears. Mirant said its CEO, Marce Fuller, plans to resign, as its directors come up with a plan to exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, Dow Jones Newswires reported. General Electric is in talks to sell some or all of its GE Capital International Services unit in India for as much as $1 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. SpectraSite, which owns and operates mobile-phone transmission towers, may be acquired by a larger rival such as Crown Castle International, Business Week reported. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note gained the most in six weeks after a measure of consumer prices advanced less than expected in August and an index of manufacturing fell, Bloomberg said. U.S. airport screeners will pat down some travelers and test their carry-on bags for bombs to tighten security a month after explosives destroyed two Russian passenger planes, Bloomberg reported. Texas Instruments said it will buy back $1 billion worth of its stock and increase its dividend by more than 17%, Bloomberg reported. Medicare said it will pay for brain scans to help detect Alzheimer's disease, which affects 4.5 million Americans, Bloomberg said. The U.S. mint will issue redesigned five-cents coins, each with a new image of President Thomas Jefferson on one side and either an American bison or the Pacific Ocean on the other, to celebrate the opening of the American West, Bloomberg reported. Tropical Storm Jeanne, which moved through the Caribbean today, is the fifth storm to threaten the U.S. this year, putting 2004 on a pace to be the worst season in 88 years, Bloomberg reported. Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline and other antidepressant makers will be ordered within months by U.S. regulators to give U.S. doctors more information on suicidal behavior linked to the pills, Bloomberg reported. Hurricane Ivan weakened to a tropical storm today after slamming into the U.S. Gulf Coast and spawning tornadoes that caused at least eight deaths on Florida's panhandle and left more than 1.2 million people and businesses in the Southeast without power, Bloomberg said. A Palestinian living in Florida was charged by federal prosecutors with raising money for terrorists and recruiting them to commit "violent jihad" around the globe, the Justice Department said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was unchanged today as my rising consumer-oriented shorts offset gains in my software and internet longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone today was constructive, however volume was light. Interest rates plunged again which will be viewed as a big positive once investors begin to see accelerating U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. Exaggerated inflation fears are diminishing which bodes well for the broad market. The S&P 500 has risen almost 6% off its lows for the year, yet the estimated P/E on the index is still below 17. With interest rates back near historically low levels and profit growth still at very high rates, the market deserves a premium multiple.

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