Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Tuesday Close

S&P 500 1,110.06 +.59%
NASDAQ 1,869.87 +.54%


Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +4.10%
Airlines +3.33%
Commodity +2.78%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -.40%
Semis -.87%
Homebuilders -1.49%

Other
Crude Oil 49.88 -.04%
Natural Gas 6.45 +1.56%
Gold 414.00 -.05%
Base Metals 116.26 -.75%
U.S. Dollar 88.11 -.20%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.00% +.38%
VIX 13.83 -5.40%
Put/Call .90 -7.22%
NYSE Arms .89 -44.38%

After-hours Movers
IACI +3.85% on ORBZ news.
ORBZ +27.59% on reports it may be purchased by Cendant for about $1.2 billion.
PCLN +11.61% on ORBZ news.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on JNPR, AYE and MET.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose today, led by surging commodity-related shares. After the close, China Minmetals has put in place the financing needed for a planned $5 billion takeover of Canada's biggest mining company, Noranda Inc., Reuters reported. Medicare, the U.S. medical-cost reimbursement program for the elderly, will increase the number of heart conditions that qualify for treatment with implantable cardiac defibrillators, CNBC said. Caterpillar raised its 2004 sales forecast and said revenue next year will increase by about 10% from this year as demand for its machines and engines grows, Bloomberg said. Preparations for Afghanistan's presidential election on Oct. 9 are "on track," a United Nations official said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as my rising steel and internet longs offset my declining homebuilding and security longs. I covered a few technology shorts and added some new Chinese ADR longs in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is ACH and I am using a stop-loss of $60.45 on this position. The tone of the market improved quite a bit in the afternoon, despite rising energy prices, as volume picked-up and the advance/decline line finished at its highs for the day. However, measures of investor anxiety fell again and are approaching very complacent levels. U.S. stocks should drift modestly higher through week's end on better economic data, short-covering, the Presidential debate and end-of-the quarter window-dressing. Tomorrow's reaction to the energy inventory data will also help determine the market's short-term direction.

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