Monday, September 13, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,125.82 +.17%
NASDAQ 1,910.38 +.85%


Leading Sectors
Semis +2.47%
Fashion +1.69%
Disk Drives +1.53%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -.27%
Utilities -.64%
Tobacco -.76%

Other
Crude Oil 43.73 -.32%
Natural Gas 4.84 -.21%
Gold 405.80 -.05%
Base Metals 108.16 -.09%
U.S. Dollar 88.54 +.17%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.15% -.92%
VIX 13.17 -4.29%
Put/Call .67 -19.28%
NYSE Arms .85 +14.86%

After-hours Movers
PGR +4.23% after saying it plans to buy back as many as 17.1 million shares. The purchase will be structured like a Dutch auction in which shareholders can tender their shares at any price between $78 and $88 a share.
LSI -6.29% after lowering 3Q forecast.

Recommendations
Goldman reiterated Attractive View of Energy sector.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today, notwithstanding afternoon profit-taking, boosted by optimism over future economic growth, falling interest rates and diminishing terrorism fears. After the close, about 84% of registered Wisconsin voters said they have given "quite a lot of thought" to the presidential election, compared with about 76% in a similar survey taken two weeks ago, CNN reported. Douglas Parker, CEO of America West doesn't expect large carriers that have filed for bankruptcy protection to liquidate, Bloomberg reported. Hurricane Ivan devastated the Caymans, tearing off roofs and washing away parts of houses and apartment buildings on the tiny islands know for international banking, Bloomberg said. Bondholders of Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts requested $39 million more for their debt than Trump's company offered last month, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. had a $41.1 billion budget deficit in August, smaller than the same month a year earlier, as tax receipts increased with a strengthening economy, Bloomberg said. Orange-juice prices in New York fell the most in six weeks on speculation that most citrus groves in Florida will escape damage from Hurricane Ivan, Bloomberg reported. Federated Department Stores will change the names of all 184 of its regional department stores to Macy's, dropping such brands as Rich's and Burdines, to expand the chain nationally, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on strength in my software, semi/semi-equipment and internet longs. I took profits in a few semi/semi-equipment longs and added some consumer-oriented shorts, leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. One of my new shorts is ERTS and I am using a $49.75 stop-loss on this position. The Portfolio is substantially higher for the year and near highs set a few months ago, thus I am locking in some gains. While U.S. stocks may head marginally higher over the next 10 days, measures of investor complacency reached levels today normally associated with short-term tops. My trading model is still giving buy signals but has deteriorated recently. I will likely stay a little more conservatively positioned over the next month as earnings pre-announcement season begins.

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