Monday, September 06, 2004

Weekly Outlook

There are a few important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week. Economic reports include Consumer Credit, Import Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Wholesale Inventories, Producer Price Index and Trade Balance. The Producer Price Index has market-moving potential.

Neiman Marcus Group(NMG/A), Comverse Technology(CMVT), CBRL Group(CBRL), National Semiconductor(NSM), Quiksilver(ZQK), Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) and Hovnanian(HOV) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a number of other events that have market-moving potential. The Lehman Brothers Energy Conference, Citi SmithBarney Tech Conference, Greenspan's testimony on the economy to the House Budget Panel, Prudential Consumer Conference, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference, CSFB Software Conference, Goldman Sachs Retail Conference, August Chain Store Comp Sales, Fed's Yellen speech, Fed's McTeer speech and the Raymond James Small Cap Investor's Forum could also impact trading this week.

Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to finish the week higher on heavier volume as traders and investors return from vacation and boost shares on optimism over diminishing terrorism fears, pro-business political rhetoric, falling energy prices and economic data showing stabilizing sustainable growth. More nimble investors should begin building long positions over the next couple of weeks in semi/semi-equip. stocks as I believe these companies will outperform substantially during the fourth quarter. My short-term trading indicators are still giving Buy signals and the Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week.

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