Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Global Growth Worries

Indices
S&P 500 1,212.37 -.11%
DJIA 10,586.01 -.13%
NASDAQ 2,088.80 -.11%
Russell 2000 640.72 -.05%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,021.30 -.12%
S&P Barra Growth 579.49 -.23%
S&P Barra Value 628.45 -.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.25 -.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 735.04 -.71%
Morgan Stanley Technology 485.75 +.04%
Transports 3,564.88 -.10%
Utilities 381.03 +.57%
Put/Call 1.14 +18.75%
NYSE Arms .95 -19.81%
Volatility(VIX) 11.23 +1.35%
ISE Sentiment 156.00 -1.27%
US Dollar 88.64 +.59%
CRB 309.94 -.35%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.35 -.03%
Unleaded Gasoline 163.70 -.52%
Natural Gas 7.54 -1.69%
Heating Oil 164.60 -.95%
Gold 440.50 +.11%
Base Metals 125.96 -1.08%
Copper 156.65 +.71%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.05% -1.27%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +2.75%
Wireless +.53%
Computer Hardware +.45%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -.88%
Gold & Silver -1.0%
Steel -1.34%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet/Retail longs and Steel shorts. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is modestly negative, considering a decline in energy prices and interest rates. According to today's energy inventory data, U.S. crude supplies have risen 7.22% over the last 12 months. API Implied U.S. Crude demand has risen 2.26% during this same period. I continue to believe global demand for most commodities will fall more than almost anyone expects during the second half of the year. Copper is very vulnerable to most of the same problems steel currently has. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as worries over slowing global growth offset lower energy prices and interest rates.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The Fed will raise interest rates one or two more times and then stop because inflation is in check, said Paul McCulley, a managing director at PIMCO, which runs the world’s biggest bond fund.
- David Dreman, whose US money management firm overseas $13 billion, is starting his first hedge funds to bet on stocks he expects to fall as well as rise.
- European government bonds climbed, spurring the biggest two-day drop in 10-year yields in almost seven years, on increasing speculation the European Central Bank will lower interest rates.
- The S&P 500 may reach a record high in 2006 because stocks are undervalued relative to bonds and real estate, according to Ed Keon, Prudential Equity’s chief investment strategist.
- Citigroup is close to an agreement to swap its asset-management unit for Legg Mason’s brokerage, plus stock and cash, in a transaction valued at about $4 billion.
- The US dollar is gaining against the euro, British pound and Swiss franc on signs that central banks in Europe are moving closer to reducing interest rates.
- Crude oil is falling after an Energy Department report showed that US inventories fell less than expected as fuel demand declined.

CNBC:
- David Guyer, CEO of Eyetech Pharmaceuticals aid that the company has a second medicine in its pipeline to treat a leading cause of blindness in adults.
- E*Trade offered to buy Ameritrade Holding for $17.50 a share last night.
- Ameritrade will buy TD Waterhouse in a deal valued at more than $3 billion.

Wall Street Journal:
- Iraq is using an international conference in Brussels to ask for help in building a peaceful and responsible country, Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s foreign minister wrote.
- EBay may lose its market dominance as merchants move to other online sites or set up their own because of higher fees and an increase in competition.
- Warren Buffett is prepared to invest even more in utilities than the $10 billion to $15 billion he’s previously mentioned.
- S&P’s Rating Services has increased the risk of defaults on some types of home loans as a result of looser lending criteria.
- The shares of both Carnival Corp. and Royal Caribbean Cruises have dropped this year, though passenger bookings are the highest in four years and fares are surging.
- Mattel plans to put the Barbie doll in show in a musical tour to reverse the toy’s declining popularity with girls.
- US Senators may compromise on legislation that would end estate taxes for all but the most wealthy Americans.
- Morningstar will expand a hedge-fund database this year, adding ratings, risk-evaluation tools and research on fund indices.

NY Times:
- US companies that specialize in environmentally friendly energy sources, such as solar energy, have attracted more than $50 million in venture capital money this month.

Washington Post:
- The number of lobbyists registered in Washington D.C. has doubled since 2000, and so have the fees they charge clients, making the industry one of the fastest-growing in the US.
- AMN Healthcare Services and Cross Country Healthcare, which may provide two-thirds of US travel nurse staffing, said demand for their services is increasing.

AP:
- Knight-Ridder CEO Tony Ridder yesterday said he expects national advertising to increase in the second half of the year.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- Oracle plans to overtake market-leader SAP AG in two to four years in business-management software and is pushing for industry consolidation.

La Stampa:
- Most Europeans are skeptical of the European Union and most Italians want to revert to the lira as the national currency, Italy’s Reform Minister Roberto Calderoli was quoted as saying.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China’s Premier Wen Jiabao called for stricter polices aimed at forcing companies to cut energy and raw material consumption amid the country’s urbanization and industrialization progress.

Distillate Inventories Rise Less-Than-Expected

- Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending June 17, 2005.
- The EIA reported crude oil inventories fell 1.58M barrels versus estimates of a 2.0M barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose 197K barrels versus estimates of a 50K barrel rise. Distillate inventories rose 1.37M barrels versus estimates of a 2.0M barrel build.

BOTTOM LINE: I would expect crude to head modestly lower later in the day on this mostly “at-expectations” report.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Japan's export growth slowed more than expected in May and the trade surplus shrank for a second month, signaling overseas demand won't support a recovery in the world's second-biggest economy.
- Investment in financial products linked to commodities surged tenfold to $50 billion since 1999 as China's economic growth drove oil, copper and coal prices to records, Barclays Capital said.
- South Korea and North Korea began formal sessions of bilateral discussions today, vowing to make the talks successful, amid increasing international pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

Wall Street Journal:
- Swiss Bank UBS AG is negotiating to buy a stake for as much as $1 billion in the Bank of China prior to the Chinese bank's listing in Hong Kong next year.

Financial Express:
- Proctor & Gamble's local unit in India may start selling Crest toothpaste in the country.

China Daily:
- A Chinese mobile-phone standard for high-speed data transmissions performed poorly in a test held by the government.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BBBY/.32
GTK/.41
MWD/.92

Upcoming Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher on gains in exporting shares after oil fell from a record. I expect US equities to open modestly higher on strength in Asia. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Stocks Finish Mixed as Oil Declines and Rates Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,213.61 -.20%
DJIA 10,599.67 -.09%
NASDAQ 2,091.07 +.14%
Russell 2000 641.04 -.12%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,034.96 -.20%
S&P Barra Growth 580.84 -.30%
S&P Barra Value 628.52 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.14 -.07%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 740.34 -.07%
Morgan Stanley Technology 485.52 +.54%
Transports 3,568.40 -.10%
Utilities 378.86 +.03%
Put/Call .96 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.18 +42.32%
Volatility(VIX) 11.08 -3.40%
ISE Sentiment 158.00 +8.97%
US Dollar 88.24 +.14%
CRB 311.03 -.87%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.88 -.27%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.04 -.43%
Natural Gas 7.47 unch.
Heating Oil 162.70 -.17%
Gold 440.60 +.02%
Base Metals 125.96 -1.08%
Copper 155.70 -.54%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.04% -1.64%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.81%
Internet +.80%
Semis +.71%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -2.00%
Oil Service -2.05%
Oil Tankers -2.86%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on SSP and KR.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The yen rose against the dollar and all major currencies on speculation China is closer to a decision to allow its currency to trade more freely.
- Winn-Dixie Stores, owner of 913 supermarkets in nine states and the Bahamas, will cut 22,000 positions and close about 326 stores as the company shrinks following its bankruptcy filing in February.
- European Aeronautic, Defense & Space, the parent of Airbus SAS, selected a site near Mobile, Alabama to build an engineering facility that may be expanded to build aerial refueling tankers for the US Air Force.
- Copper prices may fall 26% by the end of the year as new supplies arrive and economic growth slows from last year, said James Gutman, a metals analyst at the Goldman Sachs commodities research team in London.
- Ford Motor cut its 2005 earnings forecast for the second time this year and said it will eliminate about 1,700 more jobs because of weak sales in North America.
- US 10-year T-notes rose the most in three weeks, following gains in European bonds, after Sweden’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate more than economists forecast.
- Crude oil was little changed in late trading after falling on speculation a report tomorrow will show US inventories of diesel and heating oil rose last week.

Financial Times:
- PartyGaming Plc’s IPO may be held next week after fund managers placed sufficient orders for shares in the online poker company within the indicated price range.

Oriental Morning Post:
- South Africa started an anti-dumping investigation into stainless-steel tube and pipe imports from China.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher on gains in my Computer/Internet longs and Oil Tanker/Steel shorts. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline finished a bit higher, sector performance was mostly positive and volume was below-average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was neutral. The six-month change in the OECD Leading Global Indicators recently turned negative. It has gone from 7.59% growth to -.5%. This is the largest decline in this measure since the decline that began in 1999 and bottomed in 2001. This is one reason global bond yields continue to fall.