Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Global Growth Worries

Indices
S&P 500 1,212.37 -.11%
DJIA 10,586.01 -.13%
NASDAQ 2,088.80 -.11%
Russell 2000 640.72 -.05%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,021.30 -.12%
S&P Barra Growth 579.49 -.23%
S&P Barra Value 628.45 -.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.25 -.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 735.04 -.71%
Morgan Stanley Technology 485.75 +.04%
Transports 3,564.88 -.10%
Utilities 381.03 +.57%
Put/Call 1.14 +18.75%
NYSE Arms .95 -19.81%
Volatility(VIX) 11.23 +1.35%
ISE Sentiment 156.00 -1.27%
US Dollar 88.64 +.59%
CRB 309.94 -.35%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.35 -.03%
Unleaded Gasoline 163.70 -.52%
Natural Gas 7.54 -1.69%
Heating Oil 164.60 -.95%
Gold 440.50 +.11%
Base Metals 125.96 -1.08%
Copper 156.65 +.71%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.05% -1.27%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +2.75%
Wireless +.53%
Computer Hardware +.45%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -.88%
Gold & Silver -1.0%
Steel -1.34%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet/Retail longs and Steel shorts. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is modestly negative, considering a decline in energy prices and interest rates. According to today's energy inventory data, U.S. crude supplies have risen 7.22% over the last 12 months. API Implied U.S. Crude demand has risen 2.26% during this same period. I continue to believe global demand for most commodities will fall more than almost anyone expects during the second half of the year. Copper is very vulnerable to most of the same problems steel currently has. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as worries over slowing global growth offset lower energy prices and interest rates.

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