Thursday, June 16, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Oil Rises and Rates Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,209.03 +.20%
DJIA 10,572.05 +.05%
NASDAQ 2,083.93 +.43%
Russell 2000 641.09 +.62%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,997.42 +.30%
S&P Barra Growth 580.39 +.13%
S&P Barra Value 624.32 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.44 +.02%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 740.22 +1.10%
Morgan Stanley Technology 480.85 +.38%
Transports 3,552.36 +.71%
Utilities 371.42 -.68%
Put/Call .92 +10.84%
NYSE Arms .76 -13.38%
Volatility(VIX) 11.24 -1.92%
ISE Sentiment 190.00 -10.80%
US Dollar 88.80 +.20%
CRB 308.59 +.51%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 56.40 +1.67%
Unleaded Gasoline 158.80 +1.63%
Natural Gas 7.61 +2.27%
Heating Oil 162.20 -.01%
Gold 437.90 +1.62%
Base Metals 125.06 +.77%
Copper 156.95 +1.32%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.08% -.42%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.52%
Biotech +2.28%
Computer Hardware +1.84%

Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.44%
Telecom -.47%
Oil Tankers -1.38%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Homebuilding/Gaming longs and Oil Tanker Shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is neutral, considering another move higher in energy and the disappointing Philly Fed report. The Prices Paid component of the Philly Fed has now declined 64.44% just since February 1. This index joins the Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Non-Manufacturing and Empire Manufacturing in showing plunging prices paid indices. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as high energy prices offset lower long-term rates.

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