Monday, June 20, 2005

Leading Indicators Signal Slower Growth

- Leading Indicators for May fell .5% versus estimates of a .3% decline and an upwardly revised unchanged reading in April.

BOTTOM LINE: The index of leading economic indicators fell for the fourth month in five, pulled down by a flattening of the yield curve. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index fell in May which also contributed to the overall decline, however it has since rebounded. The Conference Board has stated that they believe a six-moth annualized decline of 3.5% or more would suggest imminent risk of recession. However, the six-moth annualized decline in May was 2.2%.

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