Monday, September 12, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day as Energy Prices Fall Again

Indices
S&P 500 1,239.93 -.12%
DJIA 10,677.25 unch.
NASDAQ 2,180.35 +.22%
Russell 2000 679.76 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,400.48 -.05%
S&P Barra Growth 594.10 -.03%
S&P Barra Value 642.00 -.13%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.36 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 749.08 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 508.11 +.39%
Transports 3,652.60 +.84%
Utilities 419.65 -.33%
Put/Call .79 +3.95%
NYSE Arms .94 +26.82%
Volatility(VIX) 11.74 -2.0%
ISE Sentiment 195.00 +.52%
US Dollar 87.64 +.86%
CRB 319.84 -1.08%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.10 -1.53%
Unleaded Gasoline 187.50 -4.32%
Natural Gas 11.13 -1.09%
Heating Oil 181.50 -4.30%
Gold 453.70 +.15%
Base Metals 128.63 +1.21%
Copper 164.40 +2.49%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.17% +1.45%

Leading Sectors %
Airlines +2.48%
Broadcasting +1.39%
Computer Hardware +1.15%

Lagging Sectors
HMOs -.99%
Energy -1.62%
Oil Service -1.94%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related shorts, Semiconductor longs, Retail longs, Airline longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral given the increase in long-term rates and decline in energy prices. Unleaded gas futures have plunged about 35% since their peak during Hurricane Katrina about a week ago. This bodes well for the economy, but likely means a Fed “pause” is less likely. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Reinsurers are seeking to increase premium rates for coverage of oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico by about 35% following losses related to Hurricane Katrina.
- Goldman Sachs, riding a surge in fees from equity and debt underwriting and higher revenue from oil trading, probably led US securities firms to record third-quarter earnings.
- Palestinians set fire to synagogues and other buildings still standing in Israel’s Gaza Strip settlements, as Israeli troops left and Palestinian security forces moved in early today.
- The euro fell to a two-week low against the yen and dropped versus the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi was re-elected and polls show none of Germany’s parties will get a majority in next weekend’s election.
- EBay agreed to buy Internet telephone company Skype Technologies SA for $2.6 billion in cash and stock.
- Wachovia Corp. agreed to buy Westcorp for $3.42 billion to expand its auto-finance group.
- Crude oil and gasoline are falling on signs that damage from Hurricane Katrina and record fuel prices will reduce fuel consumption.
- Oracle agreed to buy Siebel Systems for $5.85 billion, leapfrogging SAP AG to become the top seller of programs that manage customer relations.
- US Treasuries are falling as declines in oil and gasoline prices bolstered expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates next week.

Wall Street Journal:
- The FBI and the Defense Dept.’s Defense Intelligence Agency are investing in start-up companies in hope of developing new high-tech products.
- GM is discussing with parts suppliers around the world a reorganization of its purchasing department, as it seeks ways to cut costs.
- Wal-Mart Stores used back up plans for natural emergencies that helped move supplies quickly into regions devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

Barron’s:
- Glickenhaus investment firm founder Seth Glickenhaus said Countrywide Financial is one of the top 10 success stories among US stocks and may double its mortgage business within five years.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- SAP AG has taken 27 corporate clients from its US rival Oracle since January, citing SAP’s US chief.

Gulf News:
- The number of mobile-phone subscribers in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to almost double to 150 million during the next four years.

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Those who lost brothers and sisters at New York’s World Trade Center returned today to the site of its destruction to market the fourth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks and recite the names of the 2,749 people who died there.
- Toyota Motor will increase its production of hybrid cars to meet expectations for an expansion in sales, a company spokesman said.
- Al-Qaeda issued a new videotape on the fourth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in which a US-born supporter threatens attacks against Los Angeles and Melbourne, Australia.
- New Orleans officials say the city’s death toll from Katrina may be less than previously estimated.
- Wal-Mart Stores said September sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range in the aftermath of Katrina.
- US Treasuries are likely to extend a 14-month rally as the Fed sticks to its “measured” pace of interest-rate hikes to keep inflation from accelerating after Katrina.
- The yen is rising after Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi, who is credited with reviving the world’s second-largest economy, was returned to office with an increased majority in national elections.
- New Orleans began to show signs of returning to normal today as commercial cargo flights landed again at the city’s airport and repair crews continued restoring power to much of the hurricane-damaged region.
- Japanese stocks are rising, with key benchmarks set for their highest close in more than four years, after Prime Minister Koizumi won a landslide election victory, giving him a mandate to sell state assets.
- China’s consumer prices rose in August at the slowest pace in almost 2 years as food costs moderated, and clothing and mobile phones became cheaper.
- The euro is falling against the dollar and yen after polls showed Germany’s opposition Christian Democratic Union may find it more difficult to beat Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s party in elections of Sept. 18.

Barron’s:
- Apple Computer’s shift to flash memory for its new iPod nano digital music player shows flash prices have declined enough compared with hard drives for the technology to be used in small mobile devices.

New York Times:
- Some New Orleans hotels and restaurants are reopening in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina to cope with the influx of thousands of emergency workers, journalists, contractors and cleanup crews.
- Evergreen Solar, DayStar Technologies, Spire Corp., and Energy Conversion Devices have more than doubled in price in the last year and stand to benefit more as the solar market expands amid subsides and rising energy prices.
- China deployed five warships Sept. 9 near a gas field in the East China Sea that is disputed with Japan.

Washington Post:
- Delta Air Lines may file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection next week, providing it can obtain a loan to cover operating expenses, citing sources familiar with the plan.
- The Red Cross says it is paying the hotel bills of at least 57,000 people who fled Hurricane Katrina.

San Jose Mercury News:
- Siebel Systems has met with Oracle in recent weeks, and may be discussing a takeover by its larger rival.

AP:
- Northwest Airlines’ mechanics union expects to reach a deal with the airline, though striking workers likely won’t be happy with it.

AFP:
- A group linked to al-Qaeda said in a statement over the Internet that it may use chemical and other non-conventional weapons against coalition forces and Iraqi soldiers.

Spiegel:
- Adnan Shihab-Eldin, acting secretary-general of OPEC, said members will announce measures to increase oil output by about 2 million barrels a day in order to help reduce crude prices.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on DELL, RL, CCL and RCL.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on STR, XOM, PFGC, BBY and FDC.
- Reiterated Underperform on THC.

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.12%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CPB/.21
ENER/-.26
MWD/1.04

Upcoming Splits
FDG 3-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, spurred by gains in Japanese shares. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher on gains in Asia and diminishing terrorism/hurricane fears. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, September 11, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are a number of important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Producer Price Index, Trade Balance, Monthly Budget Statement
Wed. - Advance Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Thur. - Empire Manufacturing, Consumer Price Index, Business Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
Fri. - 2Q Current Account Balance, Net Foreign Security Purchases, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Campbell Soup(CPB), Morgan Stanley(MWD)
Tues. - Best Buy(BBY)
Wed. - Lehman Brothers(LEH)
Thur. - Adobe Systems(ADBE), Bear Stearns(BSC), Pier 1 Imports(PIR), Saks Inc.(SKS)
Fri. - Carnival Corp.(CCL), Cintas Corp.(CTAS)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - Bear Stearns Healthcare Conference, ThinkEquity Growth Conference and Deutsche Bank Gaming Investment Forum
Tue. - Bear Stearns Healthcare Conference, ThinkEquity Growth Conference and Deutsche Bank Gaming Investment Forum
Wed. - CSFB Homebuilders Conference and Merrill Lynch Global Pharma, Biotech & Medtech Conference
Thur. - Merrill Lynch Media and Entertainment Conference
Fri. - None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher. US equities have displayed extraordinary resiliency in recent weeks. I continue to believe a significant intermediate-term move higher in the major averages is underway that will last at least through year-end. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.