Monday, September 12, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day as Energy Prices Fall Again

Indices
S&P 500 1,239.93 -.12%
DJIA 10,677.25 unch.
NASDAQ 2,180.35 +.22%
Russell 2000 679.76 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,400.48 -.05%
S&P Barra Growth 594.10 -.03%
S&P Barra Value 642.00 -.13%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.36 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 749.08 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 508.11 +.39%
Transports 3,652.60 +.84%
Utilities 419.65 -.33%
Put/Call .79 +3.95%
NYSE Arms .94 +26.82%
Volatility(VIX) 11.74 -2.0%
ISE Sentiment 195.00 +.52%
US Dollar 87.64 +.86%
CRB 319.84 -1.08%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.10 -1.53%
Unleaded Gasoline 187.50 -4.32%
Natural Gas 11.13 -1.09%
Heating Oil 181.50 -4.30%
Gold 453.70 +.15%
Base Metals 128.63 +1.21%
Copper 164.40 +2.49%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.17% +1.45%

Leading Sectors %
Airlines +2.48%
Broadcasting +1.39%
Computer Hardware +1.15%

Lagging Sectors
HMOs -.99%
Energy -1.62%
Oil Service -1.94%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related shorts, Semiconductor longs, Retail longs, Airline longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral given the increase in long-term rates and decline in energy prices. Unleaded gas futures have plunged about 35% since their peak during Hurricane Katrina about a week ago. This bodes well for the economy, but likely means a Fed “pause” is less likely. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close.

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