Monday, September 26, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said September sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast, led by groceries.
- Iran will be referred to the UN Security Council after a divided nuclear safeguards group cited the Islamic Republic’s intention to make atomic fuel as evidence its motives might not be “peaceful.”
- Texas refineries probably escaped major damage from Hurricane Rita.
- Rita may cost insurers including Allstate Corp. and St. Paul Travelers Cos. $2.5 billion to $6 billion, less than some of last year’s storms in Florida.
- The two hurricanes that battered the southern US over the past month will have a “relatively modest” effect on the world’s largest economy, the president’s chief economic adviser and likely successor to Alan Greenspan said.
- Currency traders are the most bullish on the dollar since June as the highest yields on US Treasuries compared with Germany’s bunds in five years attract investors.
- Boeing reached a tentative labor agreement with its striking machinists after increasing pension payments and maintaining health-care benefits.
- The People’s Bank of China may name banks including HSBC Holdings, Citigroup and Bank of China as market makers in the yuan, a step toward a freely traded currency, bankers and traders familiar with the situation said.
- Nissan Motor will add more fuel-efficient cars next year and may follow with diesel-engine models, CEO Ghosen said.
- A London demonstration against the war in Iraq drew only 10,000 people after the turnout for a similar rally in Washington, DC fell far short of expectations on Saturday.
- Crude oil, gasoline and heating oil are falling in NY after refineries near Houston escaped a direct hit from Hurricane Rita, allowing the industry to prepare for increased energy demand as winter approaches.

Barron’s:
- Comcast and Time Warner may be interested in buying either of Viacom’s cable and CBS units when the company splits up, Legg Mason Wood Walker Managing Director Levin said.

Seattle Times:
- Microsoft Chairman Gates said the software maker has its most exciting products ever ready to be sold during the next 12 months.

NY Times:
- GE’s NBC Universal unit’s talks to acquire DreamWorks SKG probably won’t be finished by the end of their negotiating period next week.
- Yahoo! plans to add more video programs that are designed to be viewed online, citing the company.
- Christie Hefner, CEO and daughter of Playboy magazine founder Hugh Hefner, has plans to expand the company into online “entertainment” and licensing its brand.
- America Online’s decision to move from a subscription-based service to an advertising-based financial model is likely to succeed because of the company’s fiscal health and subscriber loyalty.

Crain’s Chicago Business:
- Chicago trails most of the nation when it comes to hiring people with skills in technology, such as computer programmers, according to a survey by Robert Half Technology.

Financial Times:
- Microsoft and Symantec will announce new company data-protection software this week after IBM released a product that can continuously back up information.

El Universal:
- Venezuela said it may seize or close oil fields operated by foreign companies if they don’t convert existing operating contracts to joint ventures by the Dec. 31 deadline.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China issued new regulations banning foreign investment in Web sites that carry news.

Gazeta Wyborcza:
- Google said it will open its first Polish office in the capital, Warsaw, citing the company.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on AMD.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on ENH and RE.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.39%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.50%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
JBL/.36
MU/-.08
WAG/.37

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Existing Home Sales for August are estimated to fall to 7.12M versus 7.16M in July.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, spurred by gains in exporting shares in the region as oil falls again. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher on lower energy prices, less damage than expected from Rita and gains in Asia. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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