Monday, September 26, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Rising Energy Prices Offset Relief Over Hurricane Rita

Indices
S&P 500 1,213.06 -.18%
DJIA 10,418.15 -.01%
NASDAQ 2,114.85 -.09%
Russell 2000 657.27 +.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,113.18 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 579.21 -.33%
S&P Barra Value 629.53 -.07%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 575.27 -.34%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 719.67 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Technology 495.04 -.30%
Transports 3,606.18 -.48%
Utilities 423.05 +.94%
Put/Call 1.15 +22.34%
NYSE Arms 1.07 +30.99%
Volatility(VIX) 13.36 +3.09%
ISE Sentiment 162.00 -23.94%
US Dollar 89.17 -.13%
CRB 326.91 +1.18%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.70 +2.27%
Unleaded Gasoline 211.25 +1.29%
Natural Gas 12.29 -.28%
Heating Oil 204.00 +4.67%
Gold 470.10 +.62%
Base Metals 131.18 +.90%
Copper 173.75 +2.30%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.29% +1.06%

Leading Sectors %
Gold & Silver +2.23%
Oil Service +1.88%
Energy +1.51%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.60%
Papers -.75%
Gaming -1.46%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Oil Tanker shorts are offsetting losses in my Energy shorts. I added back QQQQ and IWM shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral given the rise in energy prices/long-term rates and better-than-expected economic data. The Baker Hughes U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count rose to 1,451 active rigs last week, the highest level since December 1985. This is up 194% since April 1999. This is bearish for crude. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering.

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