Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Lower Oil Prices Offset Weaker Economic Data and Hawkish Fed Comments

Indices
S&P 500 1,215.09 -.04%
DJIA 10,452.94 +.09%
NASDAQ 2,116.70 -.22%
Russell 2000 658.09 -.32%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,132.38 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 581.10 +.07%
S&P Barra Value 629.81 -.15%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 578.66 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 721.38 -.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 495.08 -.42%
Transports 3,603.20 -.34%
Utilities 424.45 +.31%
Put/Call .81 -34.15%
NYSE Arms .98 -.45%
Volatility(VIX) 12.88 -1.30%
ISE Sentiment 230.00 +40.24%
US Dollar 89.62 +.57%
CRB 326.34 -.18%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.75 -1.55%
Unleaded Gasoline 216.00 +1.45%
Natural Gas 12.51 +.56%
Heating Oil 204.50 -.78%
Gold 465.90 -.77%
Base Metals 130.67 -.39%
Copper 172.30 -.78%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.30% +.41%

Leading Sectors %
HMOs +1.18%
Foods +.76%
Defense +.55%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -1.0%
Semis -1.10%
Gold & Silver -2.19%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Medical longs are offsetting losses in my Semiconductor longs. I added back QQQQ and IWM shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral given the decline in energy prices and worse-than-expected economic data. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.1% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.2% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 21th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index has stabilized over the last few days, but is still below its 200-day moving-average. Investors continue to anticipate a substantial drop-off in consumer spending that has yet to develop. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short-covering.

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