Sunday, September 18, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are a few important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - NAHB Housing Market Index
Tues. - Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Rate Decision
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Leading Indicators
Fri. - None of note

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - AES Corp.(AES), Nike Inc.(NKE)
Tues. - Circuit City(CC), Goldman Sachs(GS)
Wed. - Autozone(AZO), Bed, Bath & Beyond(BBBY), Biomet(BMET), Carmax(KMX), Cintas(CTAS), ConAgra(CAG), FedEx Corp.(FDX), Morgan Stanley(MWD)
Thur. - Darden Restaurants(DRI), General Mills(GIS), KB Home(KBH), Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Palm Inc.(PALM), Solectron(SLR)
Fri. - GTECH Holdings(GTK)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - OPEC Ordinary Meeting, Banc of America Investment Conference
Tue. - JP Morgan Software Forum, Banc of America Investment Conference, Semi Book-to-Bill
Wed. - Goldman Sachs Global Communacopia Conference, Banc of America Investment Conference
Thur. - Banc of America Investment Conference
Fri. - Goldman Sachs Telecommunications Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher. The Fed will likely raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate 25 basis points on Tues. However, the policy statement will probably contain language that overtly states they will “pause” temporarily to allow for further evaluation of data in the aftermath of Katrina. Initial Jobless Claims will take another large jump higher this week as more hurricane victims are able to file. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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