Thursday, September 15, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Long-term Rates Rise and Oil Falls

Indices
S&P 500 1,227.11 unch.
DJIA 10,551.67 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,147.65 -.08%
Russell 2000 665.81 -.08%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,258.98 -.01%
S&P Barra Growth 586.28 +.02%
S&P Barra Value 636.99 +.04%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.93 +.13%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 733.87 -.96%
Morgan Stanley Technology 502.09 -.44%
Transports 3,599.95 +.45%
Utilities 423.11 +.80%
Put/Call .91 +2.25%
NYSE Arms 1.0 +15.60%
Volatility(VIX) 12.54 -2.87%
ISE Sentiment 106.00 -44.50%
US Dollar 88.13 +.54%
CRB 319.99 -.52%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.50 -.83%
Unleaded Gasoline 189.50 -2.18%
Natural Gas 11.18 +.13%
Heating Oil 189.80 -1.40%
Gold 459.10 +1.19%
Base Metals 125.32 -1.87%
Copper 160.45 -.40%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.21% +1.16%

Leading Sectors %
Gold & Silver +1.69%
Restaurants +1.29%
HMOs +1.10%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.89%
Semis -.95%
Airlines -1.83%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs and Energy-related shorts. I added to my GOOG long, got stopped-out of an existing long and covered a few existing shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is slightly negative given the rise in long-term rates. The AAII % Bulls rose to 51.43% this week from 42.31% the prior week; this reading is now above average levels. Likewise, the % Bears fell to 28.57% from 32.69% the prior week; this is right at average levels. I would like to see investor sentiment dip again to set the stage for the vigorous 4Q rally I still anticipate. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on increasing worries over high energy prices.

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