Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Federal Reserve officials are focused on driving down the spreads between U.S. Treasury yields and consumer and corporate loans, after cutting the main interest rate to almost zero failed to revive lending. Credit costs for households and businesses haven’t followed yields on government debt lower. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages were at 5.06 percent last week, 2.59 percentage points above 10-year Treasury yields; the spread averaged 0.88 point in 2003, when the Fed slashed rates to 1 percent.

- Yields on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae mortgage securities tumbled to the lowest since October 2007 relative to government notes, after the Federal Reserve began a $500 billion program to buy the bonds. The difference between yields on Fannie’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year Treasuries fell about 24 basis points to 133 basis points as of 1:30 pm in NY. Yields on Fannie’s mortgage bonds fell 25 basis points, or .25 percentage point, to 3.80%, the lowest on record.

- The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default fell on speculation the U.S. government will spend about $775 billion on an economic stimulus package and Germany will invest extra funds to combat the recession. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit ratings dropped 20 basis points to 1,025, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 11:56 a.m. in London.

- Copper prices jumped to a one-month high in New York on speculation that a government stimulus package will help bolster the U.S. economy and revive demand for industrial metals. Copper futures for March delivery rose 8.1 cents, or 5.6 percent, to $1.54 a pound at 11:54 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. Earlier, the price reached $1.558, the highest for a most-active contract since Dec. 4.

- Leon Panetta’s selection by President- elect Barack Obama to become CIA chief surprised two top Democrats on the Senate intelligence panel, who expressed reservations about his lack of background in the spy world.

- One of New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson’s senior political advisers lobbied the state on behalf of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which won a leading role on municipal bond deals under federal scrutiny and a factor in his decision to withdraw from becoming U.S. commerce secretary.

- China’s central bank and foreign- exchange regulator today warned of rising risks to the nation from “abnormal” capital flows caused by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. “Due to the world economic recession and financial turbulence, the abnormal movement of cross-border capital will bring potential risks,” the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement on its Web site. “The direction that the flows will take is largely uncertain.”

- The euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar on speculation slowing inflation will prompt the European Central Bank to cut interest rates more than forecast. The common currency had a record two-day loss versus the pound and dropped against the yen as derivatives trading showed investors are betting the ECB will cut its key rate by at least 25 basis points next week.

- Emerging-market currencies are poised for further losses as recessions force wealthier nations to rein in overseas investment, Morgan Stanley said. One-third of the world’s wealth has been wiped out by the financial crisis and this will have a lasting effect on global consumption, wrote London-based Stephen Jen, chief strategist for emerging markets in the bank’s sales and trading arm. Foreign direct investment in the developing nations of Asia, Europe and Latin America is already starting to cool, he said.

- German billionaire investor Adolf Merckle has died, Die Welt newspaper reported today. Merckle was hit by a train near his hometown of Blaubeuren yesterday evening, according to Die Welt. It’s possible that he committed suicide, the report said, citing unidentified police officials. Merckle, whose holdings span the cement, machinery and drug industries, was battered by wrong-way bets on Volkswagen AG, a drop in the value of his HeidelbergCement AG stock and increasing debt.

Wall Street Journal:

- Some of Asia's memory-chip makers are moving to raise contract chip prices in early January following a rise in the spot market, reflecting their belief that current prices are too low.

- The U.K. government has quashed what little optimism was left in its outlook for 2009, saying previous predictions that the economy will start to recover in the second half look doubtful. "The Treasury and everybody else would acknowledge these are uncertain times," a spokesman for Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Monday.

- A derivatives clearinghouse owned by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc.(NDAQ) has gone live in recent days and started clearing over-the-counter contracts tied to interest rates. The exchange operator's chief executive, Bob Greifeld, said it is looking to sell equity stakes in the clearinghouse in the coming months.

- The main business tax cuts proposed by President-elect Barack Obama are likely to be a windfall for two industries particularly tied to the current economic meltdown: Wall Street investment banks and home builders.

NY Times:

- Cities Use Creative, Targeted Lending to Speed Energy Projects.

PC Magazine:

- Apple(AAPL) Intros New MacBook, Apps, and Big Changes for iTunes.

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CityNews:

- Consumer Electronics Show Gadgets Prove Good Technology Stays Ahead Of Bad Economy. In addition to the latest HDTVs, computers, cell phones, digital cameras, handhelds and High Definition DVD and MP3 players, here are just a few other products being highlighted at the show:

Press Trust of India:

- Steel prices in India may fall by $61 a metric ton after June because long-term global rates for coking coal are expected to decline, citing Steel Secretary Pramod Rastogi. Coking coal prices in the intermediate delivery market have fallen by a third to $200 a ton, according to the report. Indian steelmakers will likely lower metal prices in June following the fall in long-term fuel prices, Rastogi said.

Sina.com:
- China Mobile Ltd. will receive a license to operate third-generation wireless services from the Chinese government tomorrow.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-cap Value (+.33%)

Sector Underperformers:
Tobacco (-2.34%), Biotech (-1.33%) and Utilities (-1.20%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
ENDP, IDXX, DCM, CV, QDEL, LOGI, CERN, CELG, GRMN, LH, ICE and DGX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) ERTS 2) BSX 3) ICE 4) NRG 5) AMD

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Value (+1.24%)

Sector Outperformers:
Oil Service (+5.03%), Semis (+3.54%) and I-Banks (+3.39%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
RTP, PRU, XCO, WFT, MWE, LNC, LGCY, SU, BBL, MYL, NIHD, MDVN, TSU, STC, AZN, GSK, PNM, CSKI, AMED, MYRG, MFLX, DGIT, DRYS, AFAM, SSYS, OFIX, TTES, TBSI, MANT, AMAT, FSYS, SHPGY, MTK, MVC, ORA, YPF, CSC and BPT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) MOT 2) ERTS 3) ICE 4) WYNN 5) HOT

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Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- President-elect Barack Obama told House Speaker Nancy Pelosi today that he favors a U.S. economic stimulus plan of about $775 billion, a Democratic aide said. Obama met with congressional leaders from both parties at the Capitol to help craft and shore up support for a two-year plan to boost the sagging economy. He said the legislation would cut taxes for individuals and businesses and spend money on government programs to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure. Obama plans to deliver a speech on the economy on Jan. 8.

- The euro fell against the yen and traded near a three-week low versus the dollar before European Union data that may show inflation slowed in December, giving the European Central Bank more room to lower interest rates. “Poor economic fundamentals in euroland warrant further rate cuts from the ECB,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $50 billion in currency assets as a senior vice president at Putnam Investments LLC in Boston. “The interest-rate differential is moving in favor of the dollar again.” The euro may fall to $1.30 in three months, said Upadhyaya. “I am very bullish on the dollar throughout 2009,” said Matt Esteve, foreign-exchange trader at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “I think it’s because the U.S. economy is best set for recovery in 2009.”

- Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.(ENDO), the maker of Lidoderm pain patches, said it will buy Indevus Pharmaceuticals Inc.(IDEV) for as much as $637 million, to add new products and expand its sales force by 100 people.

- AU Optronics Corp.(AUO), Taiwan’s largest liquid-crystal display maker, had its 12-month share price target raised 21% at Citigroup Inc., citing “recent improvement in product prices.”

- William Ackman’s hedge fund that invests in Target Corp.(TGT) fell 68 percent last year, more than double the loss by the second-largest U.S. discount chain. Pershing Square IV declined 7.7 percent in December alone, according to a letter to investors from Pershing Square Capital Management LP.

- In many cases, the hedge fund industry has taken a bad situation and made it worse. Many funds have placed limits on withdrawals that investors can make. In effect, people are locked into a falling asset. That is a big mistake.

cnet:

- Apple(AAPL) has cut deals that will finally enable iTunes to offer songs free of copy protection software from the three largest music labels, according to two sources close to the negotiations. In exchange, Apple has agreed to become more flexible on pricing, the sources said.

- Searches at Microsoft's(MSFT) Windows Live Search site dropped again in November from a year ago while Google's(GOOG) continued to rise, according to Nielsen Online figures released on Monday. Searches at Windows Live Search fell 16.7 percent year-over-year, giving Microsoft 9.1 percent market share in the U.S. in November. Google's searches rose 21.7 percent, for 64.1 percent market share, and Yahoo's(YHOO) searches dropped 1.4 percent from November 2007, for 16.1 percent share. Total searches for the month exceeded 8 billion, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier.

CNBC.com:
- Hedge fund firm JD Capital Management is liquidating a roughly $1 billion fund that suffered heavy losses recently, the company's founder said on Monday. "We are unwinding the Tempo Master fund," said J. David Rogers, a former Goldman Sachs executive. He said the fund, which invested roughly $1 billion, was exposed to what he called the "more troubled" spots of the market. People familiar with the fund said it lost more than 40 percent.

NY Times:

- Representatives of 11 Northeastern states signed an agreement today to pursue a low-carbon fuel standard, which would aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions from motor fuels and home-heating fuels. The 11 states — which are the same states, plus Pennsylvania, that entered into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a cap-and-trade system for carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants — aim to come up with a concrete plan by the end of this year. It must then be approved by the governors or perhaps the legislatures of the various states. President-elect Barack Obama has sought a similar standard on the national level.

- American Well, a Web service that puts patients face-to-face with doctors online, will be introduced in Hawaii on Jan 15. Its first customer, Hawaii Medical Service Association, the state’s Blue Cross-Blue Shield licensee, will make the Internet version of the house call available to everyone in the state, the company said. The service is for people who seek easier access to physicians because they are uninsured or do not want to wait for an appointment or spend time driving to a clinic, said Roy Schoenberg, co-founder and chief executive of American Well Systems, which is based in Boston.

- The new Congress plans to move aggressively against the tobacco industry in coming months by regulating cigarettes, raising per-pack sales taxes and ratifying an international antitobacco treaty, according to aides for key lawmakers and experts who expect the Obama administration to break a logjam on smoking issues.

- International Business Machines Corp.'s(IBM) chief executive, Samuel Palmisano, advised the Obama transition team last month that $30 billion in government investments in expanding broadband access, computerizing health-care records and improving the electrical grid could create more than 900,000 U.S. jobs.

CNNMoney.com:
- The Treasury Department said Monday it had invested $15 billion in another seven banks, including two companies that recently completed large takeovers of other banks. Under the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, Treasury has allocated $250 billion for capital investments in banks.

Forbes.com:

- 10 Cities For Job Growth in 2009.

IBD:

- Last summer, Genentech (DNA) rejected Swiss drug maker Roche Holding's $43.7 billion offer to buy the company. The $89-a-share bid was too low, the biotech giant's board said, but it kept the door open for a higher bid.

DailyTech:

- Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close. Ice levels had been tracking lower throughout much of 2008, but rapidly recovered in the last quarter. In fact, the rate of increase from September onward is the fastest rate of change on record, either upwards or downwards. The data is being reported by the University of Illinois's Arctic Climate Research Center, and is derived from satellite observations of the Northern and Southern hemisphere polar regions. Earlier this year, predictions were rife that the North Pole could melt entirely in 2008. Instead, the Arctic ice saw a substantial recovery. Bill Chapman, a researcher with the UIUC's Arctic Center, tells DailyTech this was due in part to colder temperatures in the region. Chapman says wind patterns have also been weaker this year. Strong winds can slow ice formation as well as forcing ice into warmer waters where it will melt. Why were predictions so wrong? Researchers had expected the newer sea ice, which is thinner, to be less resilient and melt easier. Instead, the thinner ice had less snow cover to insulate it from the bitterly cold air, and therefore grew much faster than expected, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. In May, concerns over disappearing sea ice led the U.S. to officially list the polar bear a threatened species, over objections from experts who claimed the animal's numbers were increasing.

AP:

- Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson has hired a prominent white-collar attorney to represent him while a federal grand jury investigates how a top political donor landed lucrative state contracts, The Associated Press has learned. Peter Schoenburg is a partner in an Albuquerque law firm that specializes in criminal defense, complex civil and commercial litigation, Indian law and other issues.

- Citing growing budget shortfalls and troubling economic trends, Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration is lobbying for direct aid and other assistance from the federal economic stimulus package, according to a letter sent to New York's congressional delegation. Bloomberg's administration outlined its concerns and requests in an 18-page document sent to the delegation today as Congress works to develop the enormous aid plan. The letter was obtained by The Associated Press.

- President-elect Barack Obama's decision to fill the nation's top intelligence jobs with two men short on direct experience in intelligence gathering surprised the spy community and signaled the Democrat's intention for a clean break from Bush administration policies. Former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta, an eight-term congressional veteran and administrative expert, is being tapped to head the CIA. Retired Adm. Dennis Blair is Obama's choice to be director of national intelligence, a selection expected for weeks, according to two Democrats who spoke on condition of anonymity because Obama has not officially announced the choices. Obama is sending an unequivocal message that controversial administration policies approving harsh interrogations, waterboarding and extraordinary renditions — the secret transfer of prisoners to other governments with a history of torture — and warrantless wiretapping are over, said several officials. Panetta could face tough questions at his nomination hearing about his background in intelligence. California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who will chair the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Monday she was surprised by the pick, and neither was informed nor consulted. "I know nothing about this, other than what I've read," she said. "My position has consistently been that I believe the agency is best served by having an intelligence professional in charge at this time."

Reuters:

- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) sold 28 million units worldwide of its Xbox 360 video game console through the end of 2008, expanding the Xbox's lead over rival Sony Corp's PlayStation 3 console in worldwide unit sales, the company said on Monday. Xbox 360 product management director Aaron Greenberg said 2008 "was our biggest year ever in Xbox history" despite a sluggish global economy that's battered U.S. retailers this past holiday season.

The Independent:

- Bernard Madoff, accused of Wall Street's biggest ever fraud, mailed around $1m of jewelry, watches and other family heirlooms to friends and relatives in the days after his arrest, prosecutors say, in an attempt to prevent the authorities from getting their hands on them. Mr Madoff was brought before a New York court yesterday as the government sought to revoke his $10m bail, claiming he had violated its terms and was likely to try to flee the country. Last night, however, he remained free and under house arrest at his $7m penthouse apartment on Manhattan's exclusive Upper East Side, with legal wrangling set to continue before a final ruling on whether he must go straight to prison.

Nikkei:

- The Bank of Japan is likely to cut its outlook for the economy and prices at this month’s policy meeting ending on Jan.22. Members of the policy board, who in October forecast .6% growth for the year beginning April l, now expect the economy will shrink next year. Some members forecast a negligible contraction, while others see the economy shrinking as much as 2%. The central bank will also downgrade a previous forecast for prices to remain flat in fiscal 2009. Lower crude oil and commodity costs, combined with falling demand, will cause prices to fall.

Liberty Times:

- Taiwan’s car sales fell to a 23-year low in 2008, citing numbers from the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Assoc. Sales dropped 30% to 299,495 vehicles last year.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations

Bank of America:

- Recommended that investors bet that the Canadian dollar will weaken against the Swiss franc as the commodity boom falters. “The declining stimulus from the energy sector has just started to show up in Canadian economic figures.”

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.09%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AYI)/.76

- (GPN)/.58

- (RECN)/.20

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- The ISM Non-Manufacturing report for December is estimated to fall to 36.5 versus a reading of 37.3 in November.

- Factory Orders for November are estimated to fall 2.3% versus a 5.1% decline in October.

- Pending Home Sales for November are estimated to fall 1.0% versus a .7% decline in October.

2:00 pm EST

- Minutes of Dec. 16 FOMC Meeting.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales reports, Needham Growth Conference and Citi Entertainment/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Bank, Telecom and Gold Shares

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