Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The US military said it’s striking Iran for the second straight day, an escalation of violence that threatens to strain an already fragile ceasefire. 
• The prospect of trillions of dollars of government spending that has rattled Japan’s bond and currency markets has yet to change views at Moody’s Ratings, at least for now.
• South Korea’s growth outlook received the biggest upgrade among the world’s 30 major economies in the IMF’s latest projections.
• Donald Trump said a decision on US troop levels in Europe would hinge on how allies addressed his concerns over Greenland and the Iran war.
• SK Hynix’s US listing is more than seven times oversubscribed, according to people familiar with the matter, as the South Korean memory chipmaker prepares to price its offering Thursday. 
• Mini mania is sweeping through US retailers as shoppers on a budget love colorful, charming, tiny versions of common products.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @ZeroHedge

• Iran Hits Back, Launching Missiles On Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar - Ignoring Trump's Warning Of "Much Worse" Bombing. 
• Current State Of Physical AI: Everything You Need To Know. 
• Kuwaiti army says air defenses are currently intercepting missile attacks and hostile drones. 
• Canada Considered Suing Citizens Over "False And Misleading" Social Media Posts. 
• *US: GERMANY, NETHERLANDS WILL BUY RAYTHEON’S STINGER MISSILE. *US: BOEING AND RHEINMETALL-ITALY WILL EXPLORE PARTNERSHIP. *US: ANDURIL TO COMMIT TO POLAND WITH BARRACUDA-500 MISSILES. 
• DOJ Warns State Election Officials Can Be Charged Over Noncitizen Voting.
• South Korean brokerages are aggressively raising margin requirements for major equities, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. By increasing these rates — with some speculative stocks raised to 100% — firms aim to curb high-leverage trading and proactively mitigate the risk of forced liquidations during market downturns.
• Quant Funds Hammered With Biggest Drawdown Since August 2025.
• *BAIN CAPITAL EXITED FLASH MEMORY MAKER KIOXIA, EXECUTIVE SAYS.
• Modular Reactors To Solve Data Center Hysteria?
• After Tonight's Strikes, Trump Threatens "Much Worse" Bombing If Iran Doesn't Stop Attacks.
• Dear Trump: Time To Flood America's Weigh Stations With ICE And CBP Agents.
• Larges fires burn in the Iranian port city of Bushehr, on the coast of the Persian Gulf, following renewed U.S. strikes against military targets in Southern Iran.
• *HARLEY-DAVIDSON CUT TO JUNK BY S&P, OUTLOOK STABLE.
• Video footage shows the moment that U.S. strikes targeted Chabahar City in Southern Iran earlier tonight, with the strikes reportedly impacting an air and naval base operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
• Waymo Robotaxi "Snitches" On Two 15-Year-Olds Drinking & Shooting Orbeez Guns In Bay Area.
• Announcing Grok 4.5, our first model trained specifically for coding and agents. It was trained with Cursor and offers frontier intelligence at leading speeds and cost efficiency.
• U.S. strikes targeted a base operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Southern Iranian city of Bushehr, on the coast of the Persian Gulf.
• Socialism Is Targeting The Foundations That Made America Great.
• Why are car prices so high? The average amount financed by new car loans just hit a record high $42,504. 
• Momo 'Meh' As Mideast Melee Spikes Oil, Bitcoin Bad But Big-Tech & Bonds Bounce.                                     

• @CNBC

• Stock futures slip after U.S. initiates another round of attacks against Iran: Live updates.  
• CNBC Daily Open: Trump turns up the heat on allies and adversaries.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.50 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.80 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%. 
• Crude Oil 74.14/bbl. +.83% 
• Gold 4,081.20 USD/t oz. +.01%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.42 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.66 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 127.0 +1.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.58% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.04% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 -.02%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.1%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.