Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Sector Rotation, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.4 +1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.50 +1.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.9 +.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 142.6 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.3 -2.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 -2.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.7 +6.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +1.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.3 -2.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(41 of 500 reporting) +54.8% -5.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 374.41 +.87:  Growth Rate +26.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.64% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 906.27 +1.21: Growth Rate +74.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.5 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.21 +5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 41.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.8 +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.4% -.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% +40.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.57% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.13 +3.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (+4.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 48.1%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -750 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -248 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -32 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long