Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Plunging Inflation Expectations, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.7 -.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.34 +1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.1 +.6%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 142.0 -.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.5 +3.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.0 +.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.7 -8.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.3 +.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.1 +2.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +136.8% -58.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 373.55 +.11:  Growth Rate +26.9% unch., P/E 20.2 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.63% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 903.15 +5.40: Growth Rate +74.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.4 unch. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 -8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 39.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.51 +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.30 euros/megawatt-hour +5.9%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.7% -.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.58% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.11 -30.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 48.4%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +410 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -250 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +163 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long