Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• A new breed of leveraged products tracking major South Korean chip stocks are tumbling in value, threatening steep losses for the country’s retail investors who favor the tools to pursue amplified returns.   
• Bond traders ramped up bets for a July interest-rate hike ahead of US inflation data and an appearance by the head of the Federal Reserve that stand to reinforce the need for action.
• America appears to be suffering from a fun shortage. From the rising cost of concert tickets, to bowling alley and nightclub closures, to venue shortages for kids to play in local sports leagues, the fun deficit is real and it's making Americans more isolated and lonelier than previous generations. (video)  
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Here's what's moving markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• TRUMP FORMALLY NOTIFIES CONGRESS WAR HAS RESUMED. 
• War Returns: Pentagon Initiates 3rd Consecutive Night Of Iran Strikes As IRGC Targets More Vessels In Hormuz. 
• *BRENT OIL RISES TO $85/BARREL AS TRUMP REINSTATES IRAN BLOCKADE.
• The Latest Model Cars: Big Brother Is Watching You.
• Hyperscaler basket G spread crosses 150bps for the first time ever.
• On Friday, President Trump spoke by phone with the Saudi crown prince, per a U.S. official. MBS asked Trump for his backing for a military action against the Houthis and received it, the U.S. official told me.   
• These Are America's Most (And Least) Dangerous States.
• South Carolina's Governor Appoints Lindsey Graham's Sister To Fill His Senate Seat.
• True. As a precautionary measure, all user data that was uploaded to SpaceXAI before now will be completely and utterly deleted. Zero anything whatsoever will remain. -@elonmusk.
• Today's hawkish speech by Waller (who was much more dovish when he was in the running to be Fed chair), repriced rate hike odds significantly higher both on Polymarket and SOFR futs.
• China Builds Full-Scale Model Of US Destroyer In Remote Desert.
• *UAE SAYS ATTACK KILLED ONE CREW MEMBER, INJURED 8. *UAE SAYS TANKERS WERE HIT IN SOUTHERN PATHWAY OF HORMUZ STRAIT.
• 28.8 Million Queries: The AI Heist That Tripped No Alarms.
• While The Political Circus Distracts Us, Flock Builds The Digital Police State.
• China's Memory-Chip Challenger Faces A Test Of How Far US Curbs Can Reach.
• *IRAN ARMY SAYS IT TARGETS US ASSETS, VESSEL: FARS.
• Mind Control: Duncan Trussell On How Social Media Algorithms Weaponize Trauma.
• US Officials Say Iran's Ahmadinejad Was Mossad Asset, Met With Intel Chief In Hungary.
• Trump Will Hit Iran 'Hard' Tonight Or Tomorrow As IRGC Targets More Vessels In Hormuz.
• Trump-Tehran Tensions Spike Oil; Waller Whacks Bonds & Bullion; Semis Slammed Amid AI Angst.                                   

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Hormuz toll threats, Mideast tensions keep investors on edge. 
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.   
• Stock futures are little changed as Middle East tensions escalate; traders await earnings and inflation data: Live updates.  
• Trump's Hormuz toll plans bring oil supply risks back in spotlight. 
• Inflation reports expected to show improvement with a caveat; Warsh heads to Capitol Hill. 

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: Trump wants the Gulf to PAY America's war bill: "I wanna be reimbursed." "I wanna be reimbursed. Because we're protecting a very rich portion of the world. We're spending money. And so what we've done is we are going to be reimbursed for protection. We're protecting by the countries that we're helping.".

• @MJTruthUltra

• Not an accusation.. just food for thought. In 1975, congressional hearings revealed that the CIA had developed a secret “heart attack gun.” The weapon could silently fire a tiny, toxin-laced dart up to 100 yards or more, striking the target without their knowledge. The poison was designed to dissipate quickly and leave no trace in standard toxicology reports—ensuring complete plausible deniability. That was 50+ years ago it was admitted.. what do they have now? (video)

• @LaraLogan

• Who remembers when Lindsey Graham’s best friend, John McCain, took the fake Steele dossier to the FBI as part of the seditious conspiracy to overthrow Pres Donald Trump? (pic)

• @nicksortor

• JUST IN: President Trump will announce that BOTH of Georgia’s Democrat US Senators are “ILLEGITIMATE” due to election fraud, per @DC_Reporter. This comes after FBI and other federal agencies RAIDED election offices in Georgia recently. EXPOSE IT ALL! John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock’s days in the Senate might be numbered. (video)

• @joekent16jan19

• This week the Senate will vote to merge our military’s most sensitive & secretive capabilities with Israel. This merger is buried within the massive NDAA and they’re hoping you won’t notice. Merging our military with a foreign country is a treasonous betrayal of our sovereignty. Call your senators & tell them to vote no on the NDAA until the merger w/ Israel (section 219) is taken out. Tell them that we will never support merging our military with a foreign nation. The senate switchboard number is: (202) 224-3121.

• @HealthRanger

• This seems pretty crazy: Just handing over a U.S. Senate seat to a completely unqualified SISTER of the senator who just died? Shouldn't voters have a say in this? Or are we back to "royal bloodlines" now?

• @ScottPresler

• If our Senate has no intention of securing our elections, it’s time to declare our fraudulent elections a “National Emergency.”

• @AnnCoulter

• Trump swore he "would not sign" the housing bill. He let it pass anyway. Inside it: a Section 8 expansion — better zip codes for the next Michael Brown. Yours, for instance. Guess who's made millions off Section 8 housing? Jared Kushner. (video)

• @PoliticalStacy

• For those wondering... Why the vague updates and slow-walking on Mitch McConnell’s condition? There was an election law change in Kentucky in 2024. Passed by the Republican legislature and signed by Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear for a reason. If McConnell's seat opens up before Aug 3, they have to hold a special election. After Aug 3? The seat sits empty for months until January 2027, essentially handing Democrats a free vote in the Senate. They’re not rushing transparency because timing is everything. The Uniparty Swamp protects its own, even when they’re incapacitated. Term limits now.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 +1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
• Crude Oil 79.36/bbl. +1.6% 
• Gold 4,018.10 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.34 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.62 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 125.4 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.62% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.86% -5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.86%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.19%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.