Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -1.0%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.4 +1.0%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.02 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.1 -1.9%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 146.8 -.9%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 63.25 -4.5%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 +.5
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.6 +.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.1 -9.0
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.5 +5.8
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -3.6
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(134 of 500 reporting) +69.6% -5.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.40 +3.33: Growth Rate +29.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 19.5 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.96% +26.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +329.2% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 919.40 +7.82: Growth Rate +77.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 18.4 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -8.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 31.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.8 euros/megawatt-hour -10.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.4% +1.0 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.6% -.1 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.64% -3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 -13.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 55.1% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 44.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -840 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -56 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +188 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% net long
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