Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US launched fresh strikes against Iran on Thursday, the fifth straight day of attacks as shipping traffic slumped in the critical Strait of Hormuz. 
• Iran’s speedboats, missiles, drones and mines have shown they can still wreak havoc in the Strait of Hormuz, defying daily strikes from the most powerful navy in the world. 
• The US-Israel war with Iran was supposed to blow up energy markets, but that hasn’t happened yet. In this weekly documentary, Bloomberg Originals explains why.
• Fed’s Logan Favors Modestly Higher Rates to Lower Inflation.
• Twenty-nine countries, including Russia, have joined the China-led World AI Cooperation Organization, as Beijing steps up its bid to rival the US in shaping artificial intelligence. 
• Coca-Cola said it had temporarily suspended production operations of its Fairlife milk in the US after an unauthorized third party gained access to some of its systems. 
• Chevron expects to sign accords with Iraq on Friday that will advance its negotiations about investing in large oil fields, according to a senior company executive. 
• US mortgage rates rose to the highest level in almost a year, as a flareup in tensions in the Middle East renewed concerns about inflation. 
• Profit margins for US refiners making gasoline and diesel from crude oil are shattering records, as fuel supply disruptions driven by war lift prices for refined products. 
• The biggest US banks, fresh off a blowout quarter driven by a trading frenzy, shrunk their workforces by the most in at least six years. 
• FDA to Warn of Taco Bell Lettuce in 5 States Over Parasite. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge

• Heavy Overnight Iranian Attack On Bahrain, Gulf Allies, After US Launched 6th Straight Night Of Strikes.  
• "The Killer Chokepoint": China's Rare Earth Squeeze Is Reshaping The Global Economy.
• *TRUMP: URGES CONGRESS TO PASS SAVE AMERICA ACT. *TRUMP: DIRECTED DHS TO REMOVE INELIGIBLE VOTER REGISTRATIONS.   
• *TRUMP: DHS SAYS 278K NON-CITIZENS REGISTERED TO VOTE. *TRUMP: RELEASING FILES ON ALLEGED VOTER FRAUD IN MICHIGAN.
• *TRUMP: REPORTS PROVE VOTING MACHINES EXPOSED TO ATTACK.
• *TRUMP: CHINA WORKED TO INFLUENCE BUSINESSES AGAINST PRESIDENT. *TRUMP: CHINA ATTEMPTED TO MANUFACTURE BALLOTS FOR BIDEN. *TRUMP: ASKING AGENCIES TO INVESTIGATE CHINA MEDDLING COVERUP.
• A large number of ambulances and fire trucks are moving toward the King Fahd Causeway, which connects Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The causeway was apparently the target of the Iranian attack.
• *JAPAN’S NIKKEI 225 SLIDES 4% AS TECH SLUMPS ON AI JITTERS.
• Visualizing China's Role In Stabilizing Oil Markets.
• "Not Seen Since World War II": New Texas Shipyard To Hire 10,000 Workers And Mass-Produce Drone Boats.
• Trump Teleprompter Operator Made $100K Betting On Kalshi Markets Tied To Speeches.
• Canada's Wildfire Management Failures Choke Millions Of Americans With Toxic Smoke.
• Good Sentiment, Bad (Home) Sales, Ugly Semis; Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Weak Amid Summer Doldrums.          

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump takes the stage — without his longtime teleprompter operator. 
• SoftBank sinks 8% as Japanese chip stocks track Wall Street AI sell-off. 
• SpaceX aborts Starship test flight, sending stock lower. 
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as major averages head for losing week; Netflix tumbles after earnings: Live updates. 

• @TheTranscript

• Intuitive CFO: "Revenue rose 19%, Non-GAAP operating margin was 42%, and Non-GAAP earnings per share increased 28% from the prior year. Strength in our financial results continued to reflect robust adoption of da Vinci 5 and SP" $ISRG: -11% AH.
• Netflix CEO: "Q2 revenue of $12.6B was in-line with forecast and grew 13% year over year (+12% on a foreign exchange (F/X) neutral basis), driven primarily by membership growth, pricing and increased ad revenue" $NFLX: -8% AH.

• @MarioNawful

• Look at this insane footage of a pilot flying right through those massive Canadian wildfire plumes. With 830+ fires burning, they’re pumping smoke way up into the sky. It’s drifting south and wrecking the air quality across the Midwest and Northeast. Absolute climate chaos. (video) 
• Ben Jordan says Flock cameras are being placed near daycare centers and children’s gymnastics facilities. That’s where this stops feeling like a debate about stolen cars and starts feeling deeply personal. Parents are told these systems exist for safety, but when surveillance quietly spreads into places where children spend their days, people deserve clear answers: Who is being tracked? How long is the data kept? Who can access it? And where does this expansion end? A camera installed “for protection” can become permanent surveillance before the public even realizes the rules have changed. (video) 

• @EricLDaugh

• IT'S OFFICIAL: ABC, CBS and NBC are REFUSING to carry President Trump's 9PM primetime White House address on election integrity out of panic, and will instead play it on their "live now" streams with far less viewers. The networks are TERRIFIED! EXPOSE IT ALL, 47. Make no mistake, they will NOT be able to ignore their way out of this. (video)
• NOW: President Trump's 9PM address tonight will involve CHINA and might be "the most important Oval Office address since the Cuban Missile Crisis," per Sen. Bernie Moreno. NO WONDER ABC and NBC REFUSE TO AIR IT. MORENO: "I was just briefed by the White House on what to expect this evening...The time for complacency with China is over." (video)
• WTF?! President Trump reveals the Biden administration policies BLOCKED chips companies from getting investments if they weren't transgender-run or operated. "This ridiculous CHIPS act, billions of dollars...if you weren't transgender, as an example, you didn't qualify! They'd look all over for transgender people to run the company, large portions. Couldn't find them! They weren't into the chip making business I guess. The BIDEN FOOLS, these IDIOTS." (video) 

• @EmeraldRobinson

• So Brad Parscale is a registered agent of Israel and he suddenly became the chief strategy officer for Salem Media? Isn't Salem a Christian conservative broadcasting company? And JD Vance just called them out? Very interesting.

• @Barchart

• Nasdaq 100 $QQQ has moved 1% up or down in 20 of the 26 last trading days Since 2000, this has only happened during Covid, the Bear Market of 2022, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Dot Com Bubble. (graph)
• JUST IN : Nasdaq 100 $QQQ is on track for its worst July in 22 years. 

• @IGraceAshford

• An ER nurse points out that Charlie Kirk was not taken to the ER after he got shot. If Charlie Kirk arrived at an emergency department, how come no one saw him? No triage. No staff. No patients. No witnesses. That’s not how an ER works. The more details emerge, the stranger this gets. (video)

• @RyanDetrick

• The number of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day MA continues to trend higher and is close to 70%, the highest level since February. This is not bearish action and suggests the surprise summer rally has legs. (graph)

• @XRoboHub

• Okay, this is genuinely impressive. Oli just worked through a roomful of household chores — no teleop, no cuts, one continuous take. (video)

• @unusual_whales

• 1.2 million Korean investors have been hit with margin calls this last week, reportedly 1 in every 30 working-age adults, per CT.

• @itsmichaelluu

• The AI "bubble" already popped. Average drawdown: -42% from peaks so far: (list)

• @MrAustinPredict

• BREAKING: Michigan officially has the WORST air quality on the PLANET — outpacing India, China, and the Republic of Congo — by A LOT. A 518 AQI because CANADA can’t get their wildfires under control. This level of micro dust causes LONG-TERM irreversible lung damage. (pic)

• @Geiger_Capital

• We must ban golf courses immediately… Golf courses vs Data centers: (graph)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -3.5% to -1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 +1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Crude Oil 79.62/bbl. +.79% 
• Gold 3,981.60 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.38 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.59 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -1.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.55% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.84% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +2.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.83%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.61%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.