Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.0 +.6%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.8 -1.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.12 -2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.3 +.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 144.7 +.5%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 66.0 +.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.8 +3.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.5 -1.1
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.6 +1.1
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 -.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(79 of 500 reporting) +42.4% -5.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.70 +.49: Growth Rate +27.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.69% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +510.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 910.83 +1.82: Growth Rate +75.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.1 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +9.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 35.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.8 +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 62.6 euros/megawatt-hour +4.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.3% -.8 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.66% +3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.14 -4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 54.9% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 45.1%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +410 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +20 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long
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