Thursday, July 30, 2026

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Lower Oil, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 -2.9%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.3 -.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 +7.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.7 -2.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 146.3 -2.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 64.0 +2.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.6 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 -.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.4 -7.0
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.2 +14.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.3 +3.1
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(270 of 500 reporting) +47.8% -11.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 382.21 +1.23:  Growth Rate +29.9% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.05% +11.0 basis  points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +147.1% -182.1 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 924.58 +3.49: Growth Rate +78.3% +.7 percentage point, P/E 18.3 +.3 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -24.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.93 +1.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 58.2 euros/megawatt-hour -3.7%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.0% -.9 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.0% n/a
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.67% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -11.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 57.2% (+4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 44.6%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,850 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +65 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +171 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

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