Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Mideast War Escalation Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 +3.8%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.5 -1.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.5 +4.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 149.5 +3.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 67.2 +1.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.3 +.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.7 +6.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.4 +1.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.7 +2.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(119 of 500 reporting) +74.6% +32.2 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 377.07 +.37:  Growth Rate +27.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.70% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +329.2% -180.8 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 911.58 +.75: Growth Rate +75.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.5 -.6 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +7.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 34.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.0 -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 62.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.4% -.9 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.70% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.17 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 56.0% (+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 44.4%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -139 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -13 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/transport/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long