Stocks Rising into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -.7%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.7 +.8% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.10 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.2 -.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 143.9 -.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 65.8 +3.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.3 -1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.6 -1.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.5 +6.6

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.3 -2.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(64 of 500 reporting) +47.4% -4.9 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.21 +.37:  Growth Rate +27.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.69% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +510.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 909.01 +.36: Growth Rate +75.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 unch.
• US Yield Curve 36.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.3 +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 59.83 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.1% +.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.63% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.17 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 55.3% (+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 47.1%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,030 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -155 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +54 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +141 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long