Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -1.1%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.54 -.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.19 +5.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.10 -1.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 140.40 -1.4%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 57.5 +.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 93.4 +2.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.5 -.1
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.6 +.5
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.7 -1.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +148.4% -26.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 372.58 +.02: Growth Rate +26.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.63% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 897.75 +.29: Growth Rate +73.1% unch., P/E 19.3 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 37.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.7 +2.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.8% -.3 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.54% -4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.44 -9.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 49.9% (-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 47.3%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,330 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -190 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +67 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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