Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 41.1% of Issues Advancing, 54.1% Declining
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 55.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.2%
• Vix 15.4 -2.2%
• Total Put/Call .73 -24.0%
• TRIN/Arms .94 -18.0%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.0 +1.0 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 22.50 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.18 +.11%.
• S&P 500 futures -.09%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (APOG)/.72
• (C)/1.25
• (INFY)/15.69
• (JPM)/1.52
• (TSM)/3.38
• (WFC)/.97

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST 

• PPI Final Demand MoM for March is estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in February. 
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in February. 
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 245K versus 234K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2024K versus 2028K the prior week.  

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated to fall to 96.5 versus 96.9 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Unemployment report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Geopolitical Tensions, Less Economic Optimism, Oil Decline, Transport/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.75 +4.51%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.49 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.31 -.21%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.40 -.49%

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +87.32%
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -4.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 -11.91%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.79 +1.32%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 351.0 +.38%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.60 -1.07%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.54 -2.75%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.50 +2.02%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 213.86 +.79%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.69 -.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 34.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.85 +.20%

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .81% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 106.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.04/Metric Tonne -8.52%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.70 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.10 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.3 -1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 +1.0 basis point
  

• 60.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 62.7% chance at July 26 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +67 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -4.2% 2) Coal -2.1% 3) Construction -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NS, TIME, FAST, MYCC, TSCO, KNX, AVGO, X, SWFT, TS, BHP, BZUN, AGX, PLSE, BPT, ROK and BBL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SMH 2) FAST 3) LNG 4) VGK 5) CIT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSCO 2) SWFT 3) FCX 4) TESO 5) BA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.4% 2) Foods +.3% 3) Airlines +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• COUP, NBIX, SYT, MZOR, HCSG, SJR, HTHT, TGS, APOG, DAL, WYN, WFM, PEP, MOMO, MMYT, SHEN and AFSI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LNG 2) SQ 3) AKRX 4) FAST 5) CIEN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NOVN 2) AB 3) PEP 4) ALGT 5) HPQ

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -14.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 36.6% of Issues Advancing, 58.0% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 58.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.1%
• Vix 15.8 +4.8%
• Total Put/Call .96 +5.5%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -29.2%